⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
AZ
@ 2:20p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.04×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.836
Temp
45.6°F
Wind
3 mph
out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 54 🟠 C · · 14 0.326 87.8 · 57.1% 395 18.8% 18.2% 32.8% 41
2 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 38 0.274 90.0 · 16.7% 408 16.7% 18.2% 26.4% 23
3 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 71 0.204 85.7 · 20.0% 351 6.7% 10.0% 19.6% 12
4 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 81 0.167 87.5 · 16.7% 399 16.7% 16.7% 10.5% 22
5 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 37 ⚪ D · · 86 0.179 83.4 · 26.3% 400 15.4% 18.2% 15.9% 29
6 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 31 ⚪ D · · 122 0.159 92.4 · 26.3% 411 6.7% 9.1% 10.2% 35
7 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 133 0.171 89.4 · 11.1% 408 6.2% 9.1% 15.0% 27
8 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 172 0.140 86.2 · 14.3% 382 6.2% 9.1% 7.6% 21
9 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 179 0.145 89.6 · 37.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 29
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 21 0.282 91.5 · 26.3% 390 9.1% 0.0% 27.1% 30
2 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 31 0.225 90.5 · 16.7% 393 19.4% 15.4% 21.1% 32
3 Ian Happ Ian Happ 46 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 40 0.230 88.5 · 29.4% 397 25.8% 15.4% 25.8% 32
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 52 0.121 91.3 · 12.5% 385 10.0% 16.7% 11.8% 31
5 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 69 0.206 86.7 · 28.6% 357 15.4% 9.1% 17.3% 20
6 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 38 ⚪ D · · 80 0.158 86.4 · 7.4% 383 12.9% 7.7% 9.6% 48
7 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.113 90.2 · 23.8% 395 6.9% 7.7% 10.8% 43
8 Michael Busch Michael Busch 36 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 90 0.088 85.8 · 9.5% 398 6.5% 15.4% 9.2% 37
9 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 143 0.133 91.3 · 0.0% 414 6.9% 7.7% 7.5% 23
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