ATL
@
4:10p
BOS
Park Factor
0.92×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
mild air · light wind in · roof open
Combined
0.917
Temp
68.6°F
Wind
6.9 mph
in
Roof
open
Payton Tolle
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 58 | 🟠 C | +265 | 🌧️ COOL | 16 | 0.306 | 93.2 | 10.3% | 19.2% | 414 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 16.5% | 37 |
| 2 | Michael Harris II | 55 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 19 | 0.216 | 93.3 | 10.3% | 27.3% | 402 | 19.6% | 30.8% | 26.9% | 41 | |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 45 | ⚪ D | · | · | 37 | 0.195 | 91.0 | 8.4% | 23.1% | 409 | 11.3% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 26 |
| 4 |
|
Dominic Smith | 41 | ⚪ D | · | · | 53 | 0.179 | 89.9 | 7.9% | 12.8% | 397 | 9.5% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
Sandy León | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 70 | 0.225 | 82.2 | 7.4% | 30.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.6% | 12 |
| 6 |
|
Jorge Mateo | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 79 | 0.145 | 89.1 | 7.8% | 16.7% | 380 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7 |
| 7 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 32 | ⚪ D | · | · | 80 | 0.118 | 89.5 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 411 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 20 |
| 8 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 88 | 0.148 | 86.5 | 4.9% | 12.0% | 386 | 13.2% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 46 |
| 9 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 100 | 0.123 | 87.0 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 389 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 39 |
Chris Sale
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 53 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 23 | 0.220 | 90.0 | 10.8% | 28.6% | 410 | 20.0% | 25.0% | 21.8% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 32 | 0.158 | 90.6 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 392 | 14.0% | 33.3% | 11.4% | 35 |
| 3 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 58 | 0.178 | 87.3 | 7.9% | 11.1% | 364 | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 37 |
| 4 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 38 | ⚪ D | · | · | 62 | 0.154 | 89.9 | 9.3% | 6.7% | 391 | 12.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 42 |
| 5 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 66 | 0.078 | 83.8 | 5.7% | 14.3% | 393 | 14.3% | 20.0% | 9.2% | 16 |
| 6 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 24 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 97 | 0.114 | 87.8 | 6.8% | 11.1% | 388 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 98 | 0.069 | 84.8 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 386 | 2.2% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 14 |
| 8 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 99 | 0.102 | 91.2 | 7.5% | 7.7% | 386 | 6.9% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 11 |
| 9 |
|
Nick Sogard | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 102 | 0.143 | 82.5 | · | 9.1% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 26 |