ATL
@
6:45p
BOS
Park Factor
0.93×
Weather Mod
+6.0%
hot air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
1.485
Temp
85.0°F
Wind
11.5 mph
out
Roof
open
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 69 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 21 | 0.299 | 93.0 | 14.3% | 19.2% | 413 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 17.8% | 37 |
| 2 | Michael Harris II | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 38 | 0.199 | 93.3 | 14.5% | 27.3% | 400 | 20.0% | 30.8% | 26.6% | 41 | |
| 3 |
|
Austin Riley | 55 | 🟠 C | · | · | 71 | 0.188 | 90.9 | 11.5% | 23.1% | 409 | 11.5% | 15.4% | 16.8% | 28 |
| 4 |
|
Jorge Mateo | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 134 | 0.145 | 88.6 | 11.7% | 16.7% | 380 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 3 |
| 5 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 43 | ⚪ D | · | · | 136 | 0.123 | 89.7 | 12.8% | 0.0% | 411 | 5.9% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 18 |
| 6 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 165 | 0.151 | 86.3 | 7.1% | 12.0% | 386 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 45 |
| 7 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 37 | ⚪ D | · | · | 169 | 0.126 | 87.0 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 389 | 2.8% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 38 |
| 8 |
|
Ha-Seong Kim | 20 | ⚪ D | · | · | 253 | 0.000 | 86.3 | 7.3% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 24 |
| 9 |
|
Chadwick Tromp | 9 | ⚪ D | · | · | 269 | · | · | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 9 |
Bryce Elder
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 85 | 0.225 | 90.1 | 7.6% | 33.3% | 410 | 20.4% | 25.0% | 23.6% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 130 | 0.146 | 90.2 | 6.3% | 33.3% | 387 | 12.2% | 25.0% | 15.4% | 32 |
| 3 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 146 | 0.134 | 88.2 | 2.9% | 4.5% | 393 | 10.0% | 33.3% | 5.8% | 26 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 38 | ⚪ D | · | · | 159 | 0.166 | 87.1 | 5.4% | 20.0% | 364 | 10.4% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 177 | 0.157 | 90.0 | 6.5% | 12.8% | 391 | 12.2% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 41 |
| 6 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 213 | 0.033 | 82.4 | 2.9% | 0.0% | · | 16.7% | 25.0% | 8.9% | 13 |
| 7 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 24 | ⚪ D | · | · | 241 | 0.085 | 86.9 | 5.1% | 4.0% | 382 | 2.9% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 26 |
| 8 |
|
Nick Sogard | 15 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 260 | 0.086 | 83.4 | 4.8% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 22 |
| 9 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 13 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 265 | 0.046 | 91.5 | 5.1% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 24 |