2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Unlucky Barrels
Batters who crushed the ball (105+ mph exit velo) without getting paid off — a rolling 7-day view ending on the selected date.
25 batters · 7 days ending 2026-06-22
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-22T17:00:22-04:00
Barrel-Rich, HR-Poor · 7 days ending 2026-06-22
25 batters
Batter Hard-Hit Games HRs Gap Avg Max EV Peak EV Appearances
Nick Kurtz 4 1 +3 106.9 mph 109.3 mph 6
Ketel Marte 4 1 +3 105.7 mph 110.3 mph 5
Brandon Nimmo 3 0 +3 105.3 mph 108.9 mph 5
Riley Greene 3 0 +3 103.0 mph 112.0 mph 5
Jarren Duran 4 1 +3 101.8 mph 110.7 mph 6
Junior Caminero 3 0 +3 100.2 mph 112.2 mph 5
Jac Caglianone 5 3 +2 108.7 mph 110.5 mph 5
Tommy Troy 2 0 +2 106.4 mph 106.7 mph 2
Sal Stewart 3 1 +2 105.9 mph 108.2 mph 5
James Wood 2 0 +2 105.6 mph 110.9 mph 5
Jared Young 2 0 +2 105.3 mph 107.8 mph 3
William Contreras 3 1 +2 105.0 mph 110.9 mph 5
Edgar Quero 2 0 +2 104.9 mph 106.1 mph 4
Josh Jung 2 0 +2 104.2 mph 105.5 mph 5
Cam Smith 2 0 +2 103.0 mph 110.5 mph 5
Yandy Díaz 2 0 +2 103.0 mph 109.3 mph 5
Jackson Merrill 3 1 +2 102.7 mph 106.5 mph 5
Austin Riley 2 0 +2 101.4 mph 110.3 mph 7
Juan Soto 3 1 +2 101.4 mph 109.0 mph 5
Jackson Chourio 3 1 +2 101.0 mph 108.5 mph 6
Willi Castro 2 0 +2 100.8 mph 107.9 mph 4
Jo Adell 2 0 +2 98.8 mph 105.4 mph 6
Jordan Walker 2 0 +2 98.5 mph 109.9 mph 5
Wyatt Langford 4 3 +1 106.7 mph 108.0 mph 4
Casey Schmitt 2 1 +1 104.2 mph 106.2 mph 7
🍀
Six home runs to freedom

Luck runs out eventually

Sign up to see every barrel-rich batter due for regression — the ones crushing the ball without the HRs to show for it.

19 more waiting in the on-deck circle
What this means: A "barrel" is a batted ball with exit velocity ≥95 mph and a launch angle in the sweet spot (roughly 25–30°). These are the hardest-hit, best-angled balls — the ones that usually leave the yard. When a batter keeps barreling but not homering, they're getting unlucky. The Gap column shows how many barrel games exceeded their HR count. High gap + high EV = prime regression candidate.
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.