← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-27
1
Top-5 Hits
6
Top-15 Hits
23
HRs in Slate
96%
Coverage
270
Scored
What Happened
The top 15 captured 6 home runs — exceptional concentration at the top of the board.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
9 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
7 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
10 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Trey Gibson: {'batter': 'Junior Caminero', 'rank': 2, 'score': 82.0}, {'batter': 'Yandy Díaz', 'rank': 9, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Jonathan Aranda', 'rank': 15, 'score': 72.0}
Connor Prielipp: {'batter': 'Randal Grichuk', 'rank': 3, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 7, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Miguel Vargas', 'rank': 11, 'score': 73.0}
Tomoyuki Sugano: {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 4, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 14, 'score': 72.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ✅ | Byron Buxton | David Sandlin | 39.0% | 85 | 7.5 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 11.7% | 106.3 mph · 417ft · 21.0° |
| 2 | — | Junior Caminero | Trey Gibson | 24.2% | 82 | 7.2 | 1.14 | 🔥 | 14.4% | |
| 3 | — | Randal Grichuk | Connor Prielipp | 31.3% | 81 | 4.3 | 1.08 | 🌧️ | 14.6% | |
| 4 | — | Max Muncy | Tomoyuki Sugano | 27.2% | 81 | 5.3 | 1.24 | 🌧️ | 17.2% | |
| 5 | — | James Wood | Gavin Williams | 35.3% | 81 | 3.5 | 1.09 | · | 17.3% | |
| 6 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Walker Buehler | 34.2% | 81 | 4.8 | 0.95 | 🌤️ | 13.3% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Munetaka Murakami | Connor Prielipp | 31.1% | 77 | 4.3 | 1.08 | 🌧️ | 15.3% | 108.3 mph · 432ft · 24.0° |
| 8 | ✅ | Yordan Álvarez | Jacob deGrom | 28.7% | 76 | 4.3 | 0.85 | · | 14.4% | 110.0 mph · 448ft · 27.0° |
| 9 | — | Yandy Díaz | Trey Gibson | 26.9% | 76 | 7.2 | 1.14 | 🔥 | 12.0% | |
| 10 | — | Jordan Walker | Chad Patrick | 30.4% | 74 | 4.2 | 0.97 | · | 11.7% | |
| 11 | — | Miguel Vargas | Connor Prielipp | 38.1% | 73 | 4.3 | 1.08 | · | 13.2% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Juan Soto | Andrew Abbott | 27.0% | 73 | 4.8 | 1.03 | · | 10.9% | 96.4 mph · 366ft · 32.0° |
| 13 | ✅ | Brandon Lowe | Jameson Taillon | 26.4% | 73 | 6.7 | 0.80 | 🌤️ | 14.2% | 106.9 mph · 387ft · 25.0° |
| 14 | ✅ | Shohei Ohtani | Tomoyuki Sugano | 16.4% | 72 | 5.3 | 1.24 | · | 16.0% | 111.3 mph · 424ft · 21.0° |
| 15 | — | Jonathan Aranda | Trey Gibson | 15.2% | 72 | 7.2 | 1.14 | 🌤️ | 13.6% |
All 23 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | 39.0% | 106.3 | 417ft | 21.0° |
| 7 | Munetaka Murakami | 31.1% | 108.3 | 432ft | 24.0° |
| 8 | Yordan Álvarez | 28.7% | 110.0 | 448ft | 27.0° |
| 12 | Juan Soto | 27.0% | 96.4 | 366ft | 32.0° |
| 13 | Brandon Lowe | 26.4% | 106.9 | 387ft | 25.0° |
| 14 | Shohei Ohtani | 16.4% | 111.3 | 424ft | 21.0° |
| 27 | Andy Pages | 26.2% | 106.0 | 352ft | 21.0° |
| 31 | Freddie Freeman | 23.0% | 100.6 | 378ft | 28.0° |
| 32 | Gunnar Henderson | 21.6% | 109.9 | 419ft | 25.0° |
| 61 | Julio Rodríguez | 19.4% | 105.8 | 418ft | 29.0° |
| 62 | Kazuma Okamoto | 16.6% | 101.6 | 393ft | 30.0° |
| 69 | Ian Happ | 14.4% | 95.4 | 370ft | 38.0° |
| 82 | Kody Clemens | 11.3% | 102.6 | 405ft | 28.0° |
| 122 | Trea Turner | 9.8% | 103.5 | 382ft | 38.0° |
| 126 | Jarren Duran | 15.4% | 104.3 | 400ft | 24.0° |
| 143 | Chase Meidroth | 9.0% | 97.9 | 400ft | 28.0° |
| 148 | Rob Refsnyder | 10.9% | 107.7 | 368ft | 23.0° |
| 150 | Blaze Alexander | 7.2% | 108.9 | 399ft | 28.0° |
| 175 | Konnor Griffin | 8.0% | 98.3 | 369ft | 32.0° |
| 176 | Ryan McMahon | 6.9% | 104.5 | 369ft | 22.0° |
| 181 | Spencer Torkelson | 8.0% | 100.5 | 373ft | 26.0° |
| 187 | Joc Pederson | 8.6% | 103.6 | 402ft | 21.0° |
| 225 | Eric Wagaman | 10.9% | 110.1 | 415ft | 25.0° |