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Study Day
📅 2026-05-17
0
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
33
HRs in Slate
97%
Coverage
270
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 33 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
9 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
7 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
6 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
9 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Brayan Bello: {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 1, 'score': 97.0}, {'batter': 'Drake Baldwin', 'rank': 7, 'score': 88.0}
Freddy Peralta: {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 3, 'score': 92.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 8, 'score': 86.0}
Colin Rea: {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 4, 'score': 91.0}, {'batter': 'Colson Montgomery', 'rank': 10, 'score': 82.0}
Erick Fedde: {'batter': 'Ian Happ', 'rank': 9, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Conforto', 'rank': 13, 'score': 81.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Matt Olson | Brayan Bello | 60.6% | 97 | 5.6 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 17.7% | |
| 2 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Nathan Eovaldi | 42.0% | 93 | 4.7 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 17.7% | |
| 3 | — | Aaron Judge | Freddy Peralta | 32.6% | 92 | 3.7 | 1.04 | 🌤️ | 23.1% | |
| 4 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Colin Rea | 37.2% | 91 | 4.2 | 1.03 | · | 23.7% | |
| 5 | — | Mike Trout | Roki Sasaki | 32.2% | 90 | 6.5 | 1.08 | · | 22.4% | |
| 6 | — | Luke Raley | Lucas Giolito | 34.1% | 90 | 8.4 | 1.00 | 🌧️ | 23.0% | |
| 7 | — | Drake Baldwin | Brayan Bello | 44.2% | 88 | 5.6 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 17.9% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Ben Rice | Freddy Peralta | 43.3% | 86 | 3.7 | 1.04 | 🌧️ | 19.8% | 102.0 mph · 409ft · 26.0° |
| 9 | — | Ian Happ | Erick Fedde | 25.6% | 83 | 6.0 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 18.0% | |
| 10 | — | Colson Montgomery | Colin Rea | 34.9% | 82 | 4.2 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 15.7% | |
| 11 | — | Mickey Moniak | Michael Soroka | 39.2% | 82 | 3.2 | 1.12 | · | 15.0% | |
| 12 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Paul Skenes | 30.6% | 81 | 2.5 | 0.80 | 🌤️ | 26.2% | |
| 13 | ✅ | Michael Conforto | Erick Fedde | 20.2% | 81 | 6.0 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 13.5% | 107.3 mph · 414ft · 26.0° |
| 14 | — | Ryan Waldschmidt | Michael Lorenzen | 29.0% | 81 | 4.9 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 11.1% | |
| 15 | — | Jordan Walker | Stephen Kolek | 36.0% | 80 | 5.9 | 0.89 | 🌧️ | 17.8% |
All 33 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ben Rice | 43.3% | 102.0 | 409ft | 26.0° |
| 13 | Michael Conforto | 20.2% | 107.3 | 414ft | 26.0° |
| 28 | Corbin Carroll | 26.0% | 111.8 | 448ft | 24.0° |
| 33 | Ryan Jeffers | 25.1% | 99.0 | 389ft | 30.0° |
| 40 | Elly De La Cruz | 16.0% | 109.0 | 400ft | 29.0° |
| 47 | Austin Riley | 12.4% | 104.0 | 431ft | 31.0° |
| 54 | Bryce Harper | 24.7% | 103.7 | 401ft | 35.0° |
| 58 | Junior Caminero | 20.6% | 104.0 | 372ft | 21.0° |
| 59 | Angel Martínez | 36.0% | 107.9 | 407ft | 28.0° |
| 74 | Harrison Bader | 19.3% | 93.9 | 346ft | 25.0° |
| 75 | Gavin Sheets | 22.0% | 106.8 | 404ft | 26.0° |
| 94 | Michael Busch | 5.5% | 108.0 | 379ft | 25.0° |
| 98 | Garrett Mitchell | 8.0% | 115.5 | 405ft | 20.0° |
| 109 | Chase DeLauter | 20.5% | 105.3 | 371ft | 21.0° |
| 113 | Mike Yastrzemski | 13.1% | 94.6 | 344ft | 39.0° |
| 120 | Kyle Manzardo | 9.7% | 103.4 | 406ft | 32.0° |
| 126 | Jake Burger | 13.6% | 102.4 | 356ft | 27.0° |
| 145 | José Ramírez | 10.6% | 102.5 | 407ft | 28.0° |
| 154 | Salvador Perez | 9.0% | 99.0 | 393ft | 32.0° |
| 159 | Gunnar Henderson | 14.8% | 106.7 | 397ft | 32.0° |
| 165 | Yandy Díaz | 11.0% | 108.5 | 426ft | 27.0° |
| 173 | Coby Mayo | 9.5% | 112.7 | 407ft | 33.0° |
| 179 | Bryson Stott | 5.8% | 108.7 | 395ft | 21.0° |
| 182 | Christian Yelich | 10.7% | 105.7 | 398ft | 29.0° |
| 199 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 7.0% | 96.5 | 379ft | 36.0° |
| 205 | Brayan Rocchio | 9.2% | 97.5 | 388ft | 29.0° |
| 208 | Luis Arraez | 5.5% | 95.1 | 340ft | 42.0° |
| 214 | Kyle Higashioka | 8.3% | 99.8 | 393ft | 32.0° |
| 228 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 6.2% | 105.1 | 369ft | 16.0° |
| 233 | Tristan Peters | 6.4% | 101.8 | 359ft | 23.0° |
| 239 | Jacob Young | 7.2% | 103.4 | 390ft | 26.0° |
| 241 | Colton Cowser | 4.9% | 113.3 | 394ft | 25.0° |
| 259 | Edgar Quero | 6.4% | 103.8 | 407ft | 24.0° |