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Study Day
📅 2026-05-09
0
Top-5 Hits
0
Top-15 Hits
18
HRs in Slate
72%
Coverage
261
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
6 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
9 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Blake Snell: {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 1, 'score': 65.0}, {'batter': 'Ozzie Albies', 'rank': 2, 'score': 62.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 6, 'score': 57.0}, {'batter': 'Drake Baldwin', 'rank': 7, 'score': 56.0}, {'batter': 'Dominic Smith', 'rank': 11, 'score': 54.0}
Chase Burns: {'batter': 'Christian Walker', 'rank': 3, 'score': 60.0}, {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 4, 'score': 58.0}
Shane Baz: {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 5, 'score': 57.0}, {'batter': 'Carlos Cortes', 'rank': 12, 'score': 52.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Soderstrom', 'rank': 14, 'score': 51.0}
Spencer Arrighetti: {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 9, 'score': 54.0}, {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 10, 'score': 54.0}, {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 13, 'score': 52.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Matt Olson | Blake Snell | 45.6% | 65 | 5.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Ozzie Albies | Blake Snell | 26.0% | 62 | 5.1 | 1.16 | 🔥 | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Christian Walker | Chase Burns | 36.7% | 60 | 3.8 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Chase Burns | 32.8% | 58 | 3.8 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Shea Langeliers | Shane Baz | 52.4% | 57 | 3.7 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Michael Harris II | Blake Snell | 19.7% | 57 | 5.1 | 1.16 | · | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Drake Baldwin | Blake Snell | 21.5% | 56 | 5.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Hunter Goodman | Aaron Nola | 42.9% | 55 | 4.6 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 9 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Spencer Arrighetti | 19.5% | 54 | 3.7 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Spencer Arrighetti | 31.0% | 54 | 3.7 | 1.28 | · | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Dominic Smith | Blake Snell | 16.5% | 54 | 5.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 12 | — | Carlos Cortes | Shane Baz | 17.8% | 52 | 3.7 | 1.35 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 13 | — | Sal Stewart | Spencer Arrighetti | 22.9% | 52 | 3.7 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 14 | — | Tyler Soderstrom | Shane Baz | 23.7% | 51 | 3.7 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Pete Alonso | Aaron Civale | 24.0% | 51 | 3.7 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% |
All 16 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Andy Pages | 21.1% | 106.7 | 397ft | 22.0° |
| 26 | Kyle Schwarber | 32.1% | 110.8 | 417ft | 30.0° |
| 50 | Brent Rooker | 22.4% | 98.6 | 365ft | 32.0° |
| 62 | James Wood | 24.9% | 109.6 | 442ft | 28.0° |
| 64 | Byron Buxton | 29.6% | 97.6 | 378ft | 35.0° |
| 68 | Josh Jung | 15.9% | 101.8 | 389ft | 25.0° |
| 71 | Willi Castro | 7.8% | 101.4 | 376ft | 34.0° |
| 82 | Colson Montgomery | 20.6% | 98.1 | 367ft | 38.0° |
| 107 | Miguel Vargas | 15.3% | 112.9 | 404ft | 27.0° |
| 118 | Ernie Clement | 6.4% | 95.4 | 368ft | 27.0° |
| 121 | Jakob Marsee | 9.9% | 100.3 | 376ft | 23.0° |
| 127 | Jake Bauers | 10.4% | 107.0 | 420ft | 28.0° |
| 139 | Jesús Sánchez | 9.3% | 98.9 | 398ft | 34.0° |
| 143 | Jake Burger | 11.9% | 107.0 | 420ft | 28.0° |
| 147 | Xavier Edwards | 11.1% | 105.6 | 422ft | 26.0° |
| 149 | Alec Bohm | 7.1% | 101.7 | 368ft | 22.0° |