← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-08
0
Top-5 Hits
1
Top-15 Hits
17
HRs in Slate
63%
Coverage
243
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
7 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
8 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Emmet Sheehan: {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 1, 'score': 64.0}, {'batter': 'Ozzie Albies', 'rank': 3, 'score': 60.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 9, 'score': 56.0}, {'batter': 'Dominic Smith', 'rank': 10, 'score': 56.0}, {'batter': 'Drake Baldwin', 'rank': 11, 'score': 55.0}
Mike Burrows: {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 2, 'score': 63.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 4, 'score': 59.0}, {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 6, 'score': 57.0}, {'batter': 'Spencer Steer', 'rank': 12, 'score': 54.0}
Kyle Bradish: {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 5, 'score': 58.0}, {'batter': 'Carlos Cortes', 'rank': 7, 'score': 57.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Soderstrom', 'rank': 15, 'score': 53.0}
Jacob Lopez: {'batter': 'Gunnar Henderson', 'rank': 8, 'score': 57.0}, {'batter': 'Pete Alonso', 'rank': 13, 'score': 54.0}, {'batter': 'Samuel Basallo', 'rank': 14, 'score': 54.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Matt Olson | Emmet Sheehan | 60.7% | 64 | 4.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Mike Burrows | 55.6% | 63 | 5.1 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Ozzie Albies | Emmet Sheehan | 33.8% | 60 | 4.1 | 1.16 | 🔥 | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Mike Burrows | 33.2% | 59 | 5.1 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Shea Langeliers | Kyle Bradish | 47.1% | 58 | 4.1 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Sal Stewart | Mike Burrows | 21.5% | 57 | 5.1 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Carlos Cortes | Kyle Bradish | 34.5% | 57 | 4.1 | 1.35 | · | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Gunnar Henderson | Jacob Lopez | 37.2% | 57 | 6.3 | 1.35 | · | nan% | |
| 9 | — | Michael Harris II | Emmet Sheehan | 26.2% | 56 | 4.1 | 1.16 | · | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Dominic Smith | Emmet Sheehan | 22.2% | 56 | 4.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Drake Baldwin | Emmet Sheehan | 26.2% | 55 | 4.1 | 1.16 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 12 | — | Spencer Steer | Mike Burrows | 16.3% | 54 | 5.1 | 1.28 | · | nan% | |
| 13 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Jacob Lopez | 20.2% | 54 | 6.3 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% | 107.0 mph · 373ft · 20.0° |
| 14 | — | Samuel Basallo | Jacob Lopez | 26.3% | 54 | 6.3 | 1.35 | · | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Tyler Soderstrom | Kyle Bradish | 31.5% | 53 | 4.1 | 1.35 | 🌤️ | nan% |
All 17 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pete Alonso | 20.2% | 107.0 | 373ft | 20.0° |
| 22 | Hunter Goodman | 33.5% | 101.8 | 389ft | 35.0° |
| 26 | Kyle Schwarber | 34.2% | 109.2 | 415ft | 37.0° |
| 39 | Freddie Freeman | 7.1% | 107.2 | 413ft | 24.0° |
| 74 | Munetaka Murakami | 39.4% | 106.2 | 380ft | 32.0° |
| 115 | Byron Buxton | 28.8% | 103.5 | 400ft | 27.0° |
| 150 | Mark Vientos | 13.2% | 104.0 | 401ft | 24.0° |
| 154 | Justin Crawford | 6.3% | 96.6 | 361ft | 35.0° |
| 169 | Luke Raley | 21.9% | 103.6 | 372ft | 27.0° |
| 172 | Xavier Edwards | 6.1% | 103.9 | 400ft | 31.0° |
| 191 | Wilyer Abreu | 9.0% | 106.9 | 427ft | 23.0° |
| 204 | Bo Naylor | 5.6% | 105.2 | 403ft | 26.0° |
| 205 | Josh Naylor | 7.9% | 105.2 | 403ft | 26.0° |
| 208 | Julio Rodríguez | 9.1% | 104.8 | 418ft | 25.0° |
| 212 | Nolan Arenado | 11.1% | 101.8 | 405ft | 30.0° |
| 215 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 6.6% | 99.4 | 379ft | 28.0° |
| 241 | Rafael Devers | 6.2% | 102.5 | 399ft | 28.0° |