← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-03
0
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
13
HRs in Slate
54%
Coverage
243
Scored
Why It Worked
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
8 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Spencer Strider: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 1, 'score': 56.0}, {'batter': 'Mickey Moniak', 'rank': 7, 'score': 50.0}
Max Fried: {'batter': 'Coby Mayo', 'rank': 2, 'score': 53.0}, {'batter': 'Pete Alonso', 'rank': 4, 'score': 50.0}, {'batter': 'Samuel Basallo', 'rank': 5, 'score': 50.0}, {'batter': 'Gunnar Henderson', 'rank': 8, 'score': 49.0}, {'batter': 'Dylan Beavers', 'rank': 11, 'score': 46.0}, {'batter': 'Taylor Ward', 'rank': 14, 'score': 45.0}
Kyle Freeland: {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 3, 'score': 51.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 6, 'score': 50.0}, {'batter': 'Drake Baldwin', 'rank': 13, 'score': 46.0}
Parker Messick: {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 9, 'score': 49.0}, {'batter': 'Carlos Cortes', 'rank': 10, 'score': 48.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Hunter Goodman | Spencer Strider | 29.0% | 56 | 3.8 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Coby Mayo | Max Fried | 18.6% | 53 | 2.7 | 1.25 | 🔥 | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Matt Olson | Kyle Freeland | 28.3% | 51 | 4.0 | 1.08 | · | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Pete Alonso | Max Fried | 13.6% | 50 | 2.7 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Samuel Basallo | Max Fried | 22.2% | 50 | 2.7 | 1.25 | · | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Michael Harris II | Kyle Freeland | 25.0% | 50 | 4.0 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Mickey Moniak | Spencer Strider | 40.0% | 50 | 3.8 | 1.08 | · | nan% | 105.0 mph · 438ft · 31.0° |
| 8 | — | Gunnar Henderson | Max Fried | 26.2% | 49 | 2.7 | 1.25 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 9 | — | Shea Langeliers | Parker Messick | 34.8% | 49 | 2.3 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Carlos Cortes | Parker Messick | 24.9% | 48 | 2.3 | 1.08 | · | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Dylan Beavers | Max Fried | 6.3% | 46 | 2.7 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Moisés Ballesteros | Merrill Kelly | 32.0% | 46 | 8.8 | 1.07 | ❄ | nan% | 101.0 mph · 389ft · 29.0° |
| 13 | — | Drake Baldwin | Kyle Freeland | 32.3% | 46 | 4.0 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 14 | — | Taylor Ward | Max Fried | 8.1% | 45 | 2.7 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Ildemaro Vargas | Matthew Boyd | 40.6% | 45 | 1.8 | 1.07 | · | nan% |
All 13 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mickey Moniak | 40.0% | 105.0 | 438ft | 31.0° |
| 12 | Moisés Ballesteros | 32.0% | 101.0 | 389ft | 29.0° |
| 23 | Tyler Soderstrom | 6.4% | 103.0 | 379ft | 24.0° |
| 46 | Adrian Del Castillo | 11.1% | 101.5 | 412ft | 38.0° |
| 54 | TJ Rumfield | 12.0% | 103.9 | 423ft | 27.0° |
| 56 | Chase DeLauter | 18.4% | 95.2 | 356ft | 34.0° |
| 95 | Kazuma Okamoto | 13.0% | 109.0 | 401ft | 36.0° |
| 102 | Spencer Torkelson | 22.2% | 102.1 | 388ft | 29.0° |
| 116 | Miguel Andujar | 9.5% | 105.5 | 407ft | 22.0° |
| 158 | Manny Machado | 15.3% | 102.5 | 397ft | 32.0° |
| 183 | Mark Vientos | 7.8% | 103.3 | 378ft | 27.0° |
| 219 | Bryson Stott | 5.5% | 101.6 | 412ft | 33.0° |
| 223 | Jarren Duran | 7.1% | 111.8 | 376ft | 21.0° |