← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-04-30
1
Top-5 Hits
6
Top-15 Hits
23
HRs in Slate
110%
Coverage
180
Scored
What Happened
The top 15 captured 6 home runs — exceptional concentration at the top of the board.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
11 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
5 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Chris Bassitt: {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 1, 'score': 92.0}, {'batter': 'Christian Walker', 'rank': 13, 'score': 75.0}
Andrew Abbott: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 3, 'score': 86.0}, {'batter': 'Mickey Moniak', 'rank': 8, 'score': 80.0}
Michael Lorenzen: {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 4, 'score': 86.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 5, 'score': 84.0}, {'batter': 'Spencer Steer', 'rank': 7, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 10, 'score': 78.0}
Framber Valdez: {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 6, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 9, 'score': 79.0}
Lance McCullers Jr.: {'batter': 'Gunnar Henderson', 'rank': 11, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Samuel Basallo', 'rank': 15, 'score': 73.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ✅ | Yordan Alvarez | Chris Bassitt | 40.6% | 92 | 6.3 | 1.29 | · | 20.5% | 107.4 mph · 424ft · 27.0° |
| 2 | ✅ | Yordan Alvarez | Brandon Young | 37.9% | 88 | 3.9 | 1.29 | · | 20.5% | 107.4 mph · 424ft · 27.0° |
| 3 | — | Hunter Goodman | Andrew Abbott | 46.3% | 86 | 5.0 | 1.26 | 🔥 | 13.2% | |
| 4 | — | Sal Stewart | Michael Lorenzen | 23.8% | 86 | 4.6 | 1.26 | 🌧️ | 23.7% | |
| 5 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Michael Lorenzen | 50.2% | 84 | 4.6 | 1.26 | · | 15.1% | |
| 6 | — | Michael Harris II | Framber Valdez | 22.6% | 81 | 3.8 | 1.11 | 🌤️ | 19.7% | |
| 7 | — | Spencer Steer | Michael Lorenzen | 23.4% | 81 | 4.6 | 1.26 | 🌤️ | 17.9% | |
| 8 | — | Mickey Moniak | Andrew Abbott | 45.0% | 80 | 5.0 | 1.26 | 🌤️ | 12.5% | |
| 9 | — | Matt Olson | Framber Valdez | 24.5% | 79 | 3.8 | 1.11 | · | 17.7% | |
| 10 | ✅ | Nathaniel Lowe | Michael Lorenzen | 51.6% | 78 | 4.6 | 1.26 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | 101.7 mph · 399ft · 31.0° |
| 11 | — | Gunnar Henderson | Lance McCullers Jr. | 50.0% | 77 | 5.1 | 1.29 | · | 12.0% | |
| 12 | — | Carlos Cortes | Noah Cameron | 49.0% | 76 | 4.9 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | 15.4% | |
| 13 | — | Christian Walker | Chris Bassitt | 45.6% | 75 | 6.3 | 1.29 | · | 11.7% | |
| 14 | — | Dillon Dingler | Bryce Elder | 14.8% | 73 | 3.1 | 1.11 | · | 18.8% | |
| 15 | — | Samuel Basallo | Lance McCullers Jr. | 43.2% | 73 | 5.1 | 1.29 | · | 11.8% |
All 23 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | 40.6% | 107.4 | 424ft | 27.0° |
| 7 | Nathaniel Lowe | 50.8% | 101.7 | 399ft | 31.0° |
| 10 | Yordan Alvarez | 37.9% | 107.4 | 424ft | 27.0° |
| 11 | Kyle Schwarber | 38.2% | 113.0 | 406ft | 30.0° |
| 12 | Adley Rutschman | 33.2% | 101.4 | 397ft | 25.0° |
| 15 | Byron Buxton | 33.4% | 101.8 | 375ft | 36.0° |
| 37 | MJ Melendez | 18.2% | 97.0 | 359ft | 29.0° |
| 43 | CJ Abrams | 20.5% | 105.0 | 403ft | 30.0° |
| 52 | Jeremiah Jackson | 17.9% | 98.5 | 380ft | 29.0° |
| 62 | Jordan Walker | 14.1% | 107.0 | 383ft | 40.0° |
| 67 | Elias Díaz | 14.2% | 97.7 | 373ft | 29.0° |
| 69 | Jeremiah Jackson | 17.6% | 98.5 | 380ft | 29.0° |
| 70 | TJ Friedl | 11.0% | 96.8 | 360ft | 28.0° |
| 73 | Ryan Jeffers | 13.6% | 103.0 | 404ft | 31.0° |
| 78 | Brandon Lowe | 13.1% | 110.0 | 416ft | 27.0° |
| 86 | JJ Wetherholt | 12.6% | 107.7 | 391ft | 28.0° |
| 114 | Tyler Freeman | 8.7% | 97.1 | 357ft | 27.0° |
| 129 | Maikel Garcia | 9.8% | 99.9 | 395ft | 30.0° |
| 131 | Cam Smith | 10.4% | 108.1 | 414ft | 25.0° |
| 133 | Trea Turner | 5.8% | 102.3 | 373ft | 31.0° |
| 145 | William Contreras | 8.5% | 105.9 | 419ft | 29.0° |
| 147 | Daulton Varsho | 8.1% | 107.4 | 397ft | 34.0° |
| 161 | Sal Frelick | 7.7% | 102.0 | 402ft | 28.0° |