⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
WSH
@ 12:40p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.28×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · light partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.276
Temp
64.8°F
Wind
5.8 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 87 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 4 0.281 96.3 27.0% 40.9% 406 32.0% 22.2% 56.0% 29
2 CJ Abrams CJ Abrams 72 🟡 B · · 14 0.240 89.6 11.8% 33.3% 389 16.7% 22.2% 43.8% 34
3 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 34 0.170 87.3 7.4% 15.6% 409 12.5% 11.1% 32.8% 37
4 Brady House Brady House 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 45 0.160 88.7 10.9% 29.4% 395 17.4% 25.0% 17.7% 28
5 Luis García Jr. 50 🟠 C · · 55 0.165 92.5 6.6% 9.1% 388 4.2% 12.5% 27.3% 25
6 Drew Millas Drew Millas 34 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 116 0.090 81.8 4.4% 12.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 8
7 Jacob Young Jacob Young 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 134 0.095 88.1 4.3% 12.5% 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 37
8 Nasim Nuñez Nasim Nuñez 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 162 0.024 84.6 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 27
9 Jorbit Vivas Jorbit Vivas 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 168 0.051 81.8 1.5% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 14
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 JJ Bleday JJ Bleday 79 🟡 B · · 9 0.434 94.0 15.4% 30.0% 389 9.1% 0.0% 40.0% 35
2 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 70 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 17 0.226 91.0 17.6% 37.5% 391 7.7% 7.7% 26.2% 42
3 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 68 🔵 C+ · · 20 0.190 90.2 15.7% 30.8% 392 12.8% 15.4% 20.3% 41
4 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 64 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 25 0.226 94.3 14.0% 40.0% 394 15.4% 0.0% 26.7% 39
5 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 73 0.093 91.5 10.7% 20.0% 365 8.7% 8.3% 13.1% 18
6 Dane Myers Dane Myers 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 78 0.104 88.9 10.3% 8.3% 396 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 7
7 Matt McLain Matt McLain 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 99 0.130 87.3 7.1% 22.2% 404 5.1% 7.7% 12.4% 35
8 Jose Trevino Jose Trevino 36 ⚪ D · · 102 0.182 85.3 · 16.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 9
9 Blake Dunn Blake Dunn 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 140 0.062 84.8 2.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 7
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.80

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.