⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
TOR
@ 4:10p
AZ
Chase Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.81×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · strong crosswind · retractable roof
Combined
0.891
Temp
79.2°F
Wind
14.2 mph
cross
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 63 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 49 0.309 91.9 12.2% 21.4% 407 50.0% 50.0% 14.1% 28
2 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 130 0.246 86.4 8.6% 33.3% 405 16.7% 16.7% 14.5% 37
3 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 152 0.143 83.8 4.5% 21.4% 399 12.5% 18.2% 13.9% 35
4 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 37 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 155 0.142 86.0 9.4% 33.3% 409 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 28
5 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 173 0.177 92.4 9.6% 28.6% 411 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 35
6 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 194 0.188 84.9 7.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 26
7 Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno 28 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 201 0.125 87.4 9.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 8
8 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 20 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 237 0.085 86.7 1.8% 7.7% 398 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 36
9 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 16 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 250 0.105 92.2 5.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 22
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Davis Schneider Davis Schneider 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 77 0.161 93.9 26.7% 14.3% 366 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 12
2 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 87 0.200 85.1 6.1% 21.4% 388 14.3% 20.0% 20.0% 33
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 43 ⚪ D · · 127 0.096 92.7 15.4% 10.0% 437 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% 38
4 George Springer George Springer 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 129 0.185 88.9 10.0% 16.7% 389 11.8% 0.0% 10.3% 18
5 Jesús Sánchez Jesús Sánchez 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 157 0.148 91.4 7.9% 16.7% 412 16.7% 0.0% 8.2% 34
6 Andrés Giménez Andrés Giménez 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 189 0.192 86.8 6.0% 17.6% 386 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 37
7 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 30 ⚪ D · · 193 0.096 88.6 8.3% 25.0% 410 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0
8 Ernie Clement Ernie Clement 20 ⚪ D · · 238 0.087 86.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 43
9 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 14 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 257 0.000 85.0 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 22
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.84

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.