PIT
@
12:15p
TOR
Park Factor
1.00×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.996
Wind
0 mph
dome
Dylan Cease
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Brandon Lowe | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 32 | 0.287 | 89.5 | 7.4% | 27.8% | 397 | 15.0% | 18.2% | 29.1% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Oneil Cruz | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 102 | 0.200 | 95.8 | 8.5% | 29.2% | 410 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 25 |
| 3 |
|
Spencer Horwitz | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 144 | 0.167 | 86.7 | 4.2% | 16.1% | 380 | 5.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 30 |
| 4 |
|
Esmerlyn Valdez | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 174 | 0.152 | 90.0 | 4.0% | 14.3% | 402 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.6% | 11 |
| 5 |
|
Endy Rodríguez | 35 | ⚪ D | · | · | 203 | 0.175 | 88.5 | 6.0% | 9.5% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 12 |
| 6 |
|
Bryan Reynolds | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 230 | 0.132 | 90.8 | 5.7% | 11.8% | 415 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 37 |
| 7 |
|
Nick Gonzales | 13 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 281 | 0.052 | 87.0 | 2.5% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 35 |
| 8 |
|
Jake Mangum | 13 | ⚪ D | · | · | 282 | 0.021 | 83.1 | · | 28.6% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 13 |
| 9 |
|
Jared Triolo | 12 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 283 | 0.061 | 85.4 | 3.0% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 18 |
Mitch Keller
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 139 | 0.184 | 93.1 | 8.4% | 31.0% | 411 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 22 |
| 2 |
|
Daulton Varsho | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 154 | 0.154 | 86.5 | 5.6% | 16.0% | 387 | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
George Springer | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 163 | 0.164 | 87.5 | 6.3% | 26.7% | 387 | 8.9% | 18.2% | 14.7% | 32 |
| 4 |
|
Jesús Sánchez | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 184 | 0.171 | 90.9 | 6.0% | 23.1% | 400 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 25 |
| 5 | Yohendrick Piñango | 36 | ⚪ D | · | · | 201 | 0.098 | 89.8 | 5.3% | 9.1% | 348 | 16.7% | 20.0% | 7.5% | 30 | |
| 6 |
|
Andrés Giménez | 33 | ⚪ D | · | · | 216 | 0.148 | 85.7 | 4.2% | 15.4% | 382 | 2.8% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 26 |
| 7 |
|
Ernie Clement | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 217 | 0.131 | 86.1 | 3.3% | 3.1% | 370 | 6.2% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 35 |
| 8 |
|
Brandon Valenzuela | 30 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 231 | 0.158 | 89.5 | 6.5% | 25.0% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 20 |
| 9 |
|
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 235 | 0.106 | 90.4 | 5.9% | 10.0% | 412 | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 45 |