⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
MIL
@ 4:10p
HOU
Minute Maid Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.14×
Weather Mod
+3.0%
hot air · light wind in · retractable roof
Combined
1.486
Temp
92.5°F
Wind
4 mph
in
Roof
retractable
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Yordan Alvarez Yordan Alvarez 86 🟢 A · · 3 0.338 94.6 12.3% 26.1% 403 29.7% 25.0% 35.0% 29
2 Christian Walker Christian Walker 80 🟢 A · · 6 0.274 90.6 9.9% 36.1% 394 23.6% 33.3% 43.3% 37
3 Cam Smith Cam Smith 55 🟠 C · · 80 0.116 88.2 10.6% 12.5% 417 11.3% 18.2% 14.2% 30
4 Jake Meyers Jake Meyers 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 97 0.134 86.8 8.8% 14.3% 391 11.1% 25.0% 11.1% 21
5 Taylor Trammell Taylor Trammell 48 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 117 0.181 89.3 5.2% 16.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 9
6 Isaac Paredes Isaac Paredes 48 ⚪ D · · 118 0.136 86.7 6.3% 16.2% 369 7.4% 9.1% 12.3% 38
7 Braden Shewmake Braden Shewmake 47 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 131 0.172 90.0 7.0% 16.7% 376 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 27
8 Jeremy Peña Jeremy Peña 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 150 0.122 85.1 5.8% 5.3% 439 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 34
9 Christian Vázquez Christian Vázquez 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 176 0.143 86.3 4.2% 18.8% 373 6.7% 11.1% 12.5% 26
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 62 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 44 0.258 91.7 8.2% 31.0% 401 14.7% 20.0% 22.5% 28
2 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 69 0.186 89.1 6.4% 20.0% 402 9.1% 33.3% 17.8% 30
3 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 53 🟠 C · · 93 0.141 93.0 10.6% 5.0% 416 8.7% 25.0% 10.3% 34
4 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 99 0.141 92.7 8.8% 27.3% 415 5.7% 20.0% 14.6% 14
5 Andrew Vaughn Andrew Vaughn 48 ⚪ D · · 116 0.194 88.0 5.0% 16.7% 403 14.3% 0.0% 14.2% 22
6 William Contreras William Contreras 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 127 0.142 90.5 6.5% 20.7% 406 8.0% 9.1% 11.0% 37
7 Brice Turang Brice Turang 44 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 146 0.188 91.3 6.8% 29.6% 400 9.6% 8.3% 11.8% 23
8 Joey Ortiz Joey Ortiz 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 247 0.042 86.3 4.3% 6.7% 395 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 19
9 David Hamilton David Hamilton 21 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 252 0.054 84.9 3.4% 0.0% 343 2.8% 10.0% 5.4% 20
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.