⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
MIA
@ 7:07p
TOR
Rogers Centre · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.00×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.000
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 86 0.144 90.0 9.2% 15.0% 378 3.6% 9.1% 9.0% 30
2 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 126 0.205 87.0 7.6% 27.0% 378 20.4% 8.3% 11.0% 45
3 Heriberto Hernández 43 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 128 0.088 90.6 9.2% 11.1% 428 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 11
4 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 138 0.165 87.5 8.7% 6.2% 396 9.6% 15.4% 6.7% 49
5 Connor Norby Connor Norby 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 155 0.151 86.8 9.4% 14.3% 396 8.2% 8.3% 10.4% 30
6 Javier Sanoja Javier Sanoja 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 162 0.111 88.4 4.8% 0.0% 375 3.4% 14.3% 7.0% 26
7 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 190 0.137 90.6 9.5% 11.5% 396 5.8% 0.0% 9.1% 47
8 Joe Mack Joe Mack 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 192 0.145 89.2 5.8% 16.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 3
9 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.101 87.4 7.0% 6.9% 374 8.1% 8.3% 5.4% 35
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 George Springer George Springer 45 ⚪ D · · 100 0.177 87.6 6.9% 29.4% 387 8.5% 18.2% 17.6% 38
2 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 44 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 116 0.182 92.9 8.9% 29.0% 411 11.8% 0.0% 11.3% 23
3 Jesús Sánchez Jesús Sánchez 41 ⚪ D · · 139 0.174 90.9 6.3% 23.1% 400 10.5% 0.0% 11.3% 26
4 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 147 0.148 86.4 5.9% 14.3% 387 7.9% 9.1% 8.6% 33
5 Ernie Clement Ernie Clement 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 176 0.137 85.8 3.4% 3.1% 370 8.0% 20.0% 6.7% 36
6 Yohendrick Piñango 34 ⚪ D · · 189 0.097 89.9 5.3% 9.1% 348 12.5% 14.3% 7.0% 33
7 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Valenzuela 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 204 0.159 88.8 6.6% 25.0% 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 23
8 Andrés Giménez Andrés Giménez 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 218 0.139 85.7 4.4% 15.4% 382 2.6% 0.0% 8.2% 27
9 Lenyn Sosa Lenyn Sosa 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 231 0.094 89.2 5.6% 0.0% 415 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 19
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.