⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
MIA
@ 7:07p
TOR
Rogers Centre · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.01×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.010
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 52 🟠 C +1000 · 71 0.184 93.2 10.4% 29.0% 411 12.1% 0.0% 13.0% 22
2 George Springer George Springer 48 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 84 0.189 87.5 7.6% 29.4% 387 8.7% 18.2% 22.7% 36
3 Jesús Sánchez Jesús Sánchez 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 113 0.181 90.9 7.3% 23.1% 400 10.8% 0.0% 13.9% 26
4 Yohendrick Piñango 40 ⚪ D · · 136 0.110 90.1 6.3% 9.1% 348 14.3% 16.7% 8.3% 32
5 Andrés Giménez Andrés Giménez 38 ⚪ D · · 148 0.146 85.7 5.1% 15.4% 382 2.7% 8.3% 15.8% 26
6 Ernie Clement Ernie Clement 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 153 0.128 85.8 4.0% 3.1% 370 6.1% 10.0% 6.5% 35
7 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Valenzuela 35 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 162 0.158 89.2 7.7% 25.0% 392 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 22
8 Lenyn Sosa Lenyn Sosa 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 163 0.097 89.4 6.6% 0.0% 415 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 17
9 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 216 0.069 86.9 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 21
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 114 0.147 91.1 6.4% 21.1% 394 6.5% 20.0% 12.6% 13
2 Esteury Ruiz Esteury Ruiz 41 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 128 0.289 88.5 5.1% 15.4% 389 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 11
3 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 130 0.137 90.3 5.0% 15.0% 378 3.7% 10.0% 9.3% 28
4 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 147 0.211 87.3 4.1% 27.0% 378 20.8% 9.1% 11.4% 41
5 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 161 0.106 87.4 3.4% 6.9% 374 8.3% 9.1% 5.4% 33
6 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 165 0.162 87.6 4.5% 6.2% 396 9.8% 16.7% 6.6% 45
7 Javier Sanoja Javier Sanoja 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 177 0.091 88.2 2.6% 0.0% 375 3.6% 16.7% 4.7% 22
8 Joe Mack Joe Mack 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 191 0.147 89.0 3.1% 16.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 3
9 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 199 0.142 90.6 5.1% 11.5% 396 5.9% 0.0% 6.3% 43
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.