⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
LAA
@ 1:40p
TB
Tropicana Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.09×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.093
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Yandy Díaz Yandy Díaz 70 🟡 B · 🔥 HOT 28 0.200 90.6 8.2% 24.0% 384 19.0% 40.0% 26.7% 28
2 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 69 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 31 0.210 92.7 9.3% 29.4% 407 23.1% 18.2% 22.2% 32
3 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 46 0.208 91.0 9.6% 20.9% 395 15.7% 18.2% 16.6% 31
4 Victor Mesa Jr. 51 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 94 0.063 94.1 11.9% 9.1% 421 50.0% 50.0% 11.5% 10
5 Hunter Feduccia Hunter Feduccia 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 159 0.069 88.7 4.0% 8.3% 421 7.1% 20.0% 11.3% 12
6 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 193 0.080 82.7 3.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 17
7 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 211 0.081 87.8 3.1% 9.7% 379 4.9% 0.0% 6.9% 31
8 Richie Palacios Richie Palacios 30 ⚪ D · · 223 0.073 87.3 5.3% 7.7% 382 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 25
9 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 25 ⚪ D · · 246 0.068 84.1 · 7.1% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 39
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mike Trout Mike Trout 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 39 0.235 91.1 13.7% 21.4% 408 18.9% 16.7% 24.2% 37
2 Zach Neto Zach Neto 60 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 57 0.200 89.7 10.1% 15.4% 399 15.1% 16.7% 19.7% 33
3 Jorge Soler Jorge Soler 55 🟠 C · · 74 0.207 88.5 10.2% 20.0% 403 15.7% 9.1% 12.8% 33
4 Jo Adell Jo Adell 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 92 0.137 91.2 8.8% 33.3% 413 13.2% 25.0% 15.9% 37
5 Oswald Peraza Oswald Peraza 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 110 0.167 86.4 8.9% 35.7% 386 13.5% 20.0% 20.4% 24
6 Vaughn Grissom Vaughn Grissom 45 ⚪ D · · 126 0.148 90.8 7.6% 0.0% 392 12.5% 16.7% 6.6% 34
7 Jose Siri Jose Siri 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 148 0.105 85.7 13.4% 10.0% 401 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 8
8 Logan O'Hoppe Logan O'Hoppe 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 247 0.059 85.8 9.2% 0.0% 427 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 22
9 Nick Madrigal Nick Madrigal 22 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 254 0.050 86.1 4.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 3
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.69

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.