⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs
LAA
@
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.03×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cold air · strong partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.030
Temp
36.2°F
Wind
21.9 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mike Trout Mike Trout 67 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 13 0.206 90.9 11.9% 21.3% 408 40.0% 40.0% 13.8% 15
2 Yoan Moncada Yoan Moncada 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 20 0.214 89.8 11.3% 16.4% 393 20.0% 20.0% 12.1% 13
3 Zach Neto Zach Neto 61 🔵 C+ · · 28 0.217 91.0 11.2% 17.8% 404 20.0% 20.0% 12.6% 16
4 Jorge Soler Jorge Soler 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 37 0.172 89.7 10.7% 15.6% 400 20.0% 20.0% 11.8% 14
5 Jo Adell Jo Adell 54 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 55 0.249 91.7 12.5% 22.0% 411 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 18
6 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 54 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 58 0.247 90.1 11.1% 18.2% 396 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 9
7 Nolan Schanuel Nolan Schanuel 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 94 0.125 87.5 6.4% 8.2% 394 40.0% 40.0% 8.6% 16
8 Luis Rengifo Luis Rengifo 41 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 156 0.098 87.1 6.7% 8.8% 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 19
9 Logan O'Hoppe Logan O'Hoppe 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 171 0.158 90.9 10.9% 16.4% 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 15
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 62 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 25 0.178 90.0 9.9% 13.3% 393 60.0% 60.0% 12.7% 15
2 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 57 🟠 C · · 41 0.233 91.3 12.5% 16.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0
3 Michael Busch Michael Busch 55 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 48 0.261 92.2 12.7% 20.9% 397 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 21
4 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 52 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 72 0.179 88.8 9.5% 13.6% 386 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 13
5 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 49 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 89 0.234 89.5 11.1% 14.2% 395 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 11
6 Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker 49 ⚪ D · · 90 0.198 90.1 10.1% 11.8% 393 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 19
7 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 115 0.173 90.5 10.5% 15.5% 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 16
8 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 121 0.168 84.9 8.1% 10.8% 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 19
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 194 0.097 86.7 4.7% 3.7% 379 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 19
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.