HOU
@
8:05p
TEX
Park Factor
0.85×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · steady partial wind out · retractable roof
Combined
0.936
Temp
79.2°F
Wind
11.5 mph
slight_out
Roof
retractable
Jacob deGrom
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Yordan Álvarez | 76 | 🟡 B | · | · | 8 | 0.298 | 94.0 | 14.4% | 25.0% | 395 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 28.7% | 31 |
| 2 |
|
Christian Walker | 68 | 🔵 C+ | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 28 | 0.284 | 90.9 | 12.7% | 37.1% | 394 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 30.5% | 38 |
| 3 |
|
Cam Smith | 40 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 149 | 0.107 | 87.8 | 12.6% | 13.6% | 406 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 27 |
| 4 |
|
Yainer Diaz | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 153 | 0.115 | 87.8 | 6.4% | 11.8% | 380 | 4.9% | 0.0% | 12.3% | 35 |
| 5 |
|
Carlos Correa | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 195 | 0.137 | 89.2 | 11.2% | 0.0% | 384 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 26 |
| 6 |
|
José Altuve | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 203 | 0.130 | 86.3 | 8.7% | 20.0% | 373 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 9 |
| 7 |
|
Isaac Paredes | 33 | ⚪ D | · | · | 204 | 0.126 | 87.4 | 7.6% | 14.3% | 372 | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 39 |
| 8 |
|
Brice Matthews | 30 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 218 | 0.132 | 88.5 | 9.8% | 12.5% | 398 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 30 |
| 9 |
|
Christian Vázquez | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 227 | 0.153 | 87.0 | 5.3% | 18.8% | 373 | 7.7% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 27 |
Mike Burrows
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jake Burger | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +500 | 🌤️ WARM | 46 | 0.205 | 90.6 | 9.0% | 25.8% | 393 | 17.0% | 40.0% | 20.2% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Nimmo | 51 | 🟠 C | +850 | 🌤️ WARM | 84 | 0.169 | 91.9 | 9.7% | 17.1% | 407 | 10.4% | 18.2% | 13.0% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Ezequiel Duran | 48 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 98 | 0.177 | 91.3 | 7.3% | 15.8% | 370 | 15.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Evan Carter | 41 | ⚪ D | +750 | · | 143 | 0.138 | 88.4 | 8.3% | 14.6% | 371 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 26 |
| 5 |
|
Danny Jansen | 38 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 161 | 0.144 | 88.3 | 7.3% | 13.3% | 398 | 6.7% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 19 |
| 6 |
|
Joc Pederson | 35 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 190 | 0.134 | 91.4 | 7.4% | 16.1% | 385 | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Josh Jung | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 192 | 0.153 | 90.0 | 6.9% | 14.8% | 378 | 10.6% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 34 |
| 8 |
|
Nicky Lopez | 27 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 236 | 0.086 | 89.3 | 6.4% | 0.0% | 394 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 2 |
| 9 |
|
Alejandro Osuna | 15 | ⚪ D | · | · | 261 | 0.029 | 88.2 | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 29 |