HOU
@
8:05p
TEX
Park Factor
0.80×
Weather Mod
+2.0%
hot air · strong crosswind · retractable roof
Combined
0.955
Temp
85.9°F
Wind
16.1 mph
cross
Roof
retractable
Jack Leiter
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Christian Walker | 70 | 🟡 B | +430 | · | 14 | 0.284 | 90.9 | 13.2% | 37.5% | 394 | 25.5% | 41.7% | 26.5% | 36 |
| 2 |
|
Yordan Álvarez | 56 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 58 | 0.298 | 94.0 | 14.9% | 21.9% | 395 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Carlos Correa | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 153 | 0.137 | 89.2 | 11.6% | 0.0% | 384 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 27 |
| 4 |
|
Yainer Diaz | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 164 | 0.115 | 87.8 | 6.7% | 11.8% | 380 | 5.0% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 38 |
| 5 |
|
José Altuve | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 182 | 0.130 | 86.3 | 9.0% | 20.0% | 373 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 12 |
| 6 |
|
Cam Smith | 34 | ⚪ D | +800 | 🌧️ COOL | 186 | 0.107 | 87.8 | 13.1% | 13.6% | 406 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 25 |
| 7 |
|
Isaac Paredes | 33 | ⚪ D | +900 | · | 194 | 0.126 | 87.4 | 7.9% | 14.7% | 372 | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 37 |
| 8 |
|
Brice Matthews | 30 | ⚪ D | +850 | ❄ COLD | 206 | 0.132 | 88.5 | 10.2% | 13.3% | 398 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 32 |
| 9 |
|
Christian Vázquez | 28 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 215 | 0.153 | 87.0 | 5.5% | 21.4% | 373 | 8.3% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 29 |
Jason Alexander
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jake Burger | 60 | 🔵 C+ | +600 | 🌤️ WARM | 47 | 0.205 | 90.6 | 8.6% | 25.8% | 393 | 17.4% | 40.0% | 25.2% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Nimmo | 50 | 🟠 C | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 74 | 0.169 | 91.9 | 9.2% | 18.2% | 407 | 10.6% | 18.2% | 10.3% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Kyle Higashioka | 45 | ⚪ D | +650 | 🌧️ COOL | 99 | 0.148 | 88.6 | 8.9% | 21.4% | 392 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 17.3% | 15 |
| 4 |
|
Ezequiel Duran | 45 | ⚪ D | +850 | · | 105 | 0.177 | 91.3 | 6.9% | 17.6% | 370 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Justin Foscue | 41 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 140 | 0.167 | 93.0 | 9.4% | 14.3% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 25 |
| 6 |
|
Josh Jung | 37 | ⚪ D | +900 | · | 174 | 0.153 | 90.0 | 6.5% | 14.8% | 378 | 10.9% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 34 |
| 7 |
|
Evan Carter | 37 | ⚪ D | +575 | · | 175 | 0.138 | 88.4 | 7.9% | 12.8% | 371 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 24 |
| 8 |
|
Joc Pederson | 33 | ⚪ D | +575 | 🌧️ COOL | 191 | 0.134 | 91.4 | 7.0% | 13.3% | 385 | 6.5% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 23 |
| 9 |
|
Alejandro Osuna | 14 | ⚪ D | +950 | · | 254 | 0.029 | 88.2 | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 28 |