⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
COL
@ 6:05p
PHI
Citizens Bank Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.05×
Weather Mod
+4.0%
cool air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
1.474
Temp
62.9°F
Wind
12.7 mph
out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 65 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 4 0.318 93.3 · 30.8% 402 22.6% 27.3% 42.9% 26
2 Mickey Moniak Mickey Moniak 60 🔵 C+ · · 7 0.345 90.0 · 30.0% 421 21.9% 16.7% 35.0% 26
3 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 82 0.141 91.5 · 17.6% 389 6.1% 8.3% 9.8% 21
4 TJ Rumfield 36 ⚪ D · · 84 0.154 86.0 · 20.0% 412 8.0% 15.4% 11.3% 42
5 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 156 0.142 89.3 · 20.0% 415 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 25
6 Willi Castro Willi Castro 26 ⚪ D · · 166 0.110 88.6 · 6.7% 436 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 23
7 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 167 0.097 87.3 · 10.7% 401 3.0% 0.0% 10.0% 25
8 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 23 ⚪ D · · 182 0.068 89.9 · 10.0% 448 4.0% 0.0% 10.1% 18
9 Brenton Doyle Brenton Doyle 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 218 0.073 89.1 · 7.7% 408 3.2% 0.0% 9.7% 13
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 60 🔵 C+ · · 8 0.315 92.1 · 27.3% 403 25.7% 30.8% 32.1% 34
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 50 🟠 C · · 21 0.240 88.4 · 20.0% 407 20.0% 15.4% 26.4% 39
3 Trea Turner Trea Turner 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 83 0.119 90.2 · 5.9% 383 11.4% 7.7% 7.6% 40
4 Adolis García Adolis García 34 ⚪ D · · 97 0.155 93.3 · 40.0% 388 4.0% 7.7% 14.7% 35
5 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 125 0.170 90.4 · 0.0% 398 6.1% 0.0% 7.7% 34
6 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 184 0.050 90.1 · 0.0% 399 9.4% 25.0% 10.3% 34
7 J.T. Realmuto 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 200 0.093 88.7 · 0.0% 401 3.3% 0.0% 7.3% 18
8 Justin Crawford Justin Crawford 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 214 0.085 87.8 · 0.0% 361 4.2% 8.3% 7.0% 30
9 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 17 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 219 0.059 88.5 · 0.0% 354 2.9% 0.0% 7.1% 32
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.81

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.