⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
COL
@ 9:10p
LAD
Dodger Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.22×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.337
Temp
72.8°F
Wind
10.4 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Shohei Ohtani Shohei Ohtani 72 🟡 B +192 · 12 0.205 93.1 15.9% 15.2% 400 10.2% 16.7% 24.1% 33
2 Teoscar Hernández Teoscar Hernández 64 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 26 0.195 89.5 13.4% 25.0% 383 10.5% 23.1% 20.3% 37
3 Freddie Freeman Freddie Freeman 64 🔵 C+ +350 · 28 0.179 91.9 13.5% 11.1% 401 8.3% 8.3% 27.3% 23
4 Andy Pages Andy Pages 60 🔵 C+ +370 🌧️ COOL 40 0.194 90.0 11.0% 26.5% 388 16.0% 15.4% 13.4% 38
5 Mookie Betts Mookie Betts 58 🟠 C +370 · 44 0.180 91.2 12.8% 16.7% 387 5.3% 0.0% 10.4% 42
6 Will Smith Will Smith 54 🟠 C +370 · 63 0.102 89.8 14.3% 10.8% 402 8.5% 9.1% 7.0% 30
7 Enrique Hernández Enrique Hernández 50 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 79 0.056 90.6 10.7% 11.1% 428 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 11
8 Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker 45 ⚪ D +400 🌧️ COOL 104 0.139 89.1 9.2% 8.8% 397 4.1% 0.0% 12.1% 35
9 Hyeseong Kim Hyeseong Kim 33 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 175 0.072 85.0 7.6% 6.7% 372 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 22
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 66 🔵 C+ +320 🌧️ COOL 21 0.231 91.0 12.0% 29.0% 400 18.6% 10.0% 18.9% 28
2 TJ Rumfield 57 🟠 C +525 🌤️ WARM 48 0.175 85.8 9.4% 21.1% 412 7.7% 8.3% 18.8% 37
3 Jake McCarthy Jake McCarthy 48 ⚪ D +700 · 85 0.157 83.8 7.9% 9.1% 425 7.7% 0.0% 13.1% 38
4 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 38 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 149 0.106 87.5 8.2% 9.7% 401 2.2% 0.0% 8.5% 32
5 Willi Castro Willi Castro 37 ⚪ D +700 🌧️ COOL 154 0.092 89.3 7.6% 8.7% 406 2.9% 0.0% 10.8% 25
6 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 35 ⚪ D +700 ❄ COLD 164 0.158 88.8 4.3% 14.3% 415 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 29
7 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 34 ⚪ D +950 🌧️ COOL 170 0.079 89.0 7.0% 7.7% 448 2.7% 0.0% 8.2% 27
8 Tyler Freeman Tyler Freeman 27 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 200 0.077 86.8 · 0.0% 361 5.6% 0.0% 7.0% 25
9 Sterlin Thompson Sterlin Thompson 17 ⚪ D +700 · 223 · 85.7 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.