⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
AZ
@ 8:05p
TEX
Globe Life Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.90×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · steady partial wind out · retractable roof
Combined
0.993
Temp
78.6°F
Wind
9.2 mph
slight_out
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corey Seager Corey Seager 44 ⚪ D +370 🌤️ WARM 46 0.207 91.2 · 25.0% 394 16.7% 8.3% 14.4% 29
2 Josh Jung Josh Jung 39 ⚪ D +500 🌧️ COOL 75 0.228 90.4 · 18.2% 378 13.5% 8.3% 13.3% 43
3 Jake Burger Jake Burger 37 ⚪ D +400 🌤️ WARM 85 0.156 89.6 · 24.0% 399 10.8% 16.7% 10.0% 31
4 Brandon Nimmo Brandon Nimmo 36 ⚪ D +475 🌤️ WARM 89 0.170 91.9 · 16.7% 396 8.1% 0.0% 10.5% 28
5 Joc Pederson Joc Pederson 33 ⚪ D +475 🌤️ WARM 111 0.099 92.7 · 15.4% 385 9.1% 8.3% 7.9% 22
6 Danny Jansen Danny Jansen 32 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 115 0.134 88.0 · 25.0% 393 4.5% 8.3% 12.5% 13
7 Evan Carter Evan Carter 32 ⚪ D +575 🌧️ COOL 116 0.144 88.3 · 15.2% 371 17.4% 16.7% 11.7% 30
8 Wyatt Langford Wyatt Langford 26 ⚪ D · · 164 0.125 90.8 · 8.3% 365 3.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0
9 Josh Smith Josh Smith 13 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 239 0.024 87.9 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 7
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 43 ⚪ D +400 · 51 0.274 90.2 · 22.2% 408 13.6% 15.4% 16.1% 38
2 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 41 ⚪ D +850 🌧️ COOL 61 0.326 87.1 · 20.0% 399 15.4% 7.7% 14.5% 48
3 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 35 ⚪ D +700 🌤️ WARM 97 0.179 83.9 · 21.7% 401 13.9% 15.4% 17.9% 29
4 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 34 ⚪ D +525 🌤️ WARM 102 0.167 88.9 · 17.6% 403 12.5% 15.4% 16.1% 21
5 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 30 ⚪ D +850 🌤️ WARM 128 0.140 86.8 · 6.7% 382 3.8% 7.7% 6.9% 38
6 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 163 0.204 85.9 · 11.1% 351 4.0% 0.0% 10.8% 14
7 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 26 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 168 0.171 89.9 · 12.5% 408 3.8% 0.0% 9.2% 9
8 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 23 ⚪ D +370 🌧️ COOL 195 0.159 91.0 · 23.8% 411 4.0% 7.7% 10.0% 36
9 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 16 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 226 0.145 88.8 · 42.9% 409 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 17
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.80

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.