⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
AZ
@ 5:05p
SF
Oracle Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.02×
Weather Mod
+3.0%
cool air · strong partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.330
Temp
62.8°F
Wind
14 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 80 🟢 A · · 2 0.240 89.7 16.6% 23.7% 388 19.1% 30.8% 31.4% 38
2 Harrison Bader Harrison Bader 74 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 7 0.211 88.9 12.9% 40.0% 382 12.5% 50.0% 32.2% 31
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 67 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 19 0.149 91.0 13.6% 18.2% 402 13.5% 23.1% 18.0% 36
4 Willy Adames Willy Adames 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 30 0.160 88.8 13.3% 20.7% 376 10.4% 23.1% 19.1% 38
5 Bryce Eldridge Bryce Eldridge 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 91 0.103 93.2 8.3% 14.3% 364 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 18
6 Daniel Susac Daniel Susac 43 ⚪ D · · 116 0.111 88.7 10.5% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 14
7 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 42 ⚪ D · · 121 0.111 87.5 9.6% 8.7% 349 2.1% 0.0% 8.3% 33
8 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 34 ⚪ D · · 171 0.105 87.3 · 2.4% 345 4.1% 15.4% 7.3% 52
9 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 172 0.107 83.8 7.0% 20.0% 380 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 26
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 57 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 51 0.251 91.7 5.5% 25.0% 417 12.9% 9.1% 18.3% 35
2 Ryan Waldschmidt Ryan Waldschmidt 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 86 0.253 85.1 4.9% 14.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 22
3 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 93 0.186 91.7 4.9% 23.3% 411 8.8% 18.2% 14.9% 48
4 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 105 0.210 85.6 3.8% 18.5% 401 13.3% 9.1% 13.0% 35
5 Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno 36 ⚪ D · · 157 0.185 88.8 4.9% 10.0% 413 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 32
6 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 26 ⚪ D · · 204 0.117 87.7 2.9% 4.3% 382 2.8% 0.0% 6.3% 42
7 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 210 0.124 88.2 3.9% 14.3% 403 8.7% 0.0% 7.4% 14
8 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 224 0.097 88.3 2.8% 25.0% 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 30
9 Tommy Troy Tommy Troy 8 ⚪ D · · 232 · · · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0
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