⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
AZ
@ 4:10p
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.94×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · steady wind out · retractable roof
Combined
0.937
Temp
57.5°F
Wind
9.2 mph
out
Roof
retractable
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Luke Raley Luke Raley 84 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 4 0.291 91.0 19.3% 39.3% 384 23.1% 30.0% 32.8% 21
2 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 70 🟡 B · · 26 0.223 93.0 16.5% 25.0% 403 9.3% 20.0% 26.1% 17
3 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 70 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 27 0.197 90.4 12.7% 14.3% 411 25.0% 45.5% 19.7% 46
4 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 62 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 50 0.175 91.0 11.4% 20.0% 389 9.1% 18.2% 12.5% 36
5 J.P. Crawford 56 🟠 C · · 70 0.179 88.2 12.7% 30.0% 385 11.8% 0.0% 22.1% 30
6 Colt Emerson Colt Emerson 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 76 0.205 88.1 8.2% 18.8% 355 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 30
7 Jhonny Pereda Jhonny Pereda 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 109 0.091 90.1 8.4% 0.0% 392 33.3% 33.3% 6.8% 18
8 Cole Young Cole Young 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 171 0.130 87.8 10.0% 6.7% 395 5.5% 0.0% 7.1% 35
9 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 199 0.096 87.6 10.2% 15.6% 402 7.7% 0.0% 8.1% 41
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.243 91.2 7.4% 24.0% 417 11.1% 9.1% 12.2% 39
2 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 135 0.198 85.6 5.3% 17.2% 401 12.2% 10.0% 13.8% 28
3 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 138 0.194 90.8 6.9% 19.4% 415 10.3% 27.3% 15.1% 47
4 Ryan Waldschmidt Ryan Waldschmidt 42 ⚪ D · · 147 0.241 86.6 6.0% 12.5% · 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 34
5 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.190 86.9 4.2% 13.6% 399 10.0% 0.0% 8.1% 44
6 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 219 0.125 87.2 3.9% 4.2% 372 4.9% 8.3% 4.8% 43
7 Aramis Garcia Aramis Garcia 25 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 244 0.106 90.2 4.2% 9.1% 398 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 6
8 Tim Tawa Tim Tawa 20 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 257 0.077 87.9 3.1% 16.7% 363 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 7
9 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 261 0.106 88.0 3.8% 25.0% 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.69

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.