AZ
@
2:20p
CHC
Park Factor
1.05×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cold air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
0.941
Temp
42.5°F
Wind
8.1 mph
out
Roof
open
Colin Rea
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ildemaro Vargas | 57 | 🟠 C | · | · | 10 | 0.326 | 87.2 | · | 37.5% | 395 | 20.0% | 18.2% | 32.8% | 40 |
| 2 |
|
Corbin Carroll | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 26 | 0.274 | 89.8 | · | 25.0% | 408 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 29.8% | 23 |
| 3 |
|
Nolan Arenado | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 28 | 0.179 | 83.2 | · | 22.2% | 400 | 16.0% | 27.3% | 19.8% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Adrian Del Castillo | 42 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 61 | 0.167 | 87.1 | · | 18.2% | 399 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 11.0% | 20 |
| 5 |
|
Jorge Barrosa | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 86 | 0.204 | 85.7 | · | 14.3% | 351 | 7.1% | 10.0% | 21.4% | 11 |
| 6 |
|
Ketel Marte | 34 | ⚪ D | · | · | 105 | 0.159 | 92.6 | · | 27.8% | 411 | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 39 |
| 7 |
|
Geraldo Perdomo | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 115 | 0.140 | 85.8 | · | 10.0% | 398 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 20 |
| 8 |
|
Alek Thomas | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 125 | 0.171 | 89.4 | · | 12.5% | 408 | 6.7% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 27 |
| 9 |
|
Jose Fernandez | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 174 | 0.145 | 89.3 | · | 50.0% | 409 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 28 |
Zac Gallen
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Moisés Ballesteros | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 36 | 0.282 | 91.8 | · | 27.8% | 390 | 10.0% | 14.3% | 25.7% | 30 |
| 2 |
|
Ian Happ | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 46 | 0.230 | 88.4 | · | 29.4% | 397 | 26.7% | 23.1% | 25.6% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 53 | 0.225 | 90.5 | · | 17.6% | 393 | 20.0% | 15.4% | 25.3% | 31 |
| 4 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 78 | 0.121 | 91.2 | · | 12.5% | 385 | 10.3% | 16.7% | 9.4% | 29 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Shaw | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 80 | 0.206 | 87.3 | · | 28.6% | 357 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 19.8% | 20 |
| 6 |
|
Nico Hoerner | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 82 | 0.158 | 86.3 | · | 7.4% | 383 | 13.3% | 15.4% | 10.9% | 52 |
| 7 |
|
Michael Busch | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 139 | 0.088 | 85.2 | · | 10.0% | 398 | 6.7% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 37 |
| 8 |
|
Alex Bregman | 28 | ⚪ D | · | · | 149 | 0.113 | 90.4 | · | 23.8% | 395 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 43 |
| 9 |
|
Carson Kelly | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 188 | 0.133 | 91.1 | · | 0.0% | 414 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 23 |