⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
ATH
@ 9:40p
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.94×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind out · retractable roof
Combined
0.751
Temp
49.6°F
Wind
4.9 mph
out
Roof
retractable
J.T. Ginn RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Luke Raley Luke Raley 86 🟢 A · · 4 0.314 92.8 18.8% 45.5% 382 40.0% 40.0% 28.1% 26
2 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 72 0.134 90.9 8.0% 16.7% 426 5.0% 9.1% 9.0% 35
3 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 78 0.102 83.8 9.1% 7.4% 391 10.0% 18.2% 6.5% 40
4 Brendan Donovan Brendan Donovan 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 87 0.214 84.7 5.1% 33.3% 348 12.5% 10.0% 14.1% 24
5 J.P. Crawford 39 ⚪ D · · 90 0.127 88.5 8.7% 12.5% · 5.3% 10.0% 7.2% 29
6 Cole Young Cole Young 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 119 0.128 84.9 7.0% 13.3% 381 10.0% 0.0% 7.3% 32
7 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 30 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 126 0.070 87.9 4.2% 8.3% 426 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35
8 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 25 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 142 0.074 87.2 7.1% 14.3% 399 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 31
9 Leo Rivas Leo Rivas 20 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 153 0.041 85.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 11
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Shea Langeliers Shea Langeliers 59 🟠 C · · 40 0.261 93.2 12.2% 27.3% 394 22.2% 0.0% 16.5% 34
2 Max Muncy Max Muncy 55 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 45 0.195 95.3 12.8% 18.2% 383 21.9% 22.2% 19.1% 56
3 Brent Rooker Brent Rooker 52 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 49 0.147 89.0 19.2% 22.2% 365 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% 6
4 Nick Kurtz Nick Kurtz 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 51 0.127 97.9 14.3% 14.3% 363 11.1% 18.2% 11.4% 26
5 Tyler Soderstrom Tyler Soderstrom 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 77 0.167 89.7 8.3% 10.5% 403 5.6% 9.1% 8.8% 40
6 Lawrence Butler Lawrence Butler 26 ⚪ D · · 138 0.118 87.9 5.6% 20.0% 365 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 31
7 Jacob Wilson Jacob Wilson 19 ⚪ D · · 156 0.099 84.5 0.0% 12.5% · 5.9% 10.0% 7.1% 46
8 Jeff McNeil Jeff McNeil 17 ⚪ D · · 158 0.078 86.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 39
9 Denzel Clarke Denzel Clarke 11 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 169 0.019 93.0 4.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 21
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.83

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.