2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MIL RHB
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

RHB
MIL · 37 appearances tracked
7
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
18.9%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
16.1%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
92.3
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.189
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#2
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.218
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
85th pctile
92.2
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
89th pctile
11.4%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
85th pctile
17.6% vs RHP
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall.
77th pctile
392
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
45th pctile
14.3%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
40.0%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
25.0%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
96th pctile
43
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
Loading matchup data...
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 2 games · 7 HRs in 37 games
Due (1×)
2.5×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
5
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
2
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
37
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
16
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
5
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
71%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#68.0
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
HR Days (While Top 50)
5 homers captured
DateRankPitcherStadium B/P WT BP EV Distance
2026-06-04 #39 Adrian Houser American Family Field · · · 105.5 mph 423 ft
2026-06-09 #25 J.T. Ginn Las Vegas Ballpark R/R ⚠️ 94.5 mph 354 ft
2026-06-13 #30 José Alvarado American Family Field R/R ⚠️ 102.3 mph 410 ft
2026-06-14 #39 Cristopher Sánchez American Family Field R/L ⚠️ 102.6 mph 412 ft
2026-06-17 #5 Gavin Williams American Family Field R/R ⚠️ 100.2 mph 366 ft
All Appearances
37 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-06-22 #2 Brady Singer R/R * 36.2% 🟢 A 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-21 #36 Bryce Elder R/R * 27.6% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-20 #37 Chris Sale R/L * 33.9% 🟢 A 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-19 #22 Martín Pérez R/L * 36.1% 🟢 A 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-18 #13 Parker Messick R/L * 41.8% 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-17 #5 Gavin Williams R/R * 34.1% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-16 #15 Slade Cecconi R/R * 31.9% 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-14 #39 Cristopher Sánchez R/L * 20.5% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-13 #30 Aaron Nola R/R * 25.0% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-12 #20 Andrew Painter R/R * 26.7% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-06-09 #25 J.T. Ginn R/R * 19.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ 💥
2026-06-07 #14 Kyle Freeland · 26.4% 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-06-04 #39 Adrian Houser · 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-30 #94 Peter Lambert · 10.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-29 #108 Kai-Wei Teng · 6.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-27 #134 Dustin May · 7.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-26 #88 Michael McGreevy · 8.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-25 #80 Matthew Liberatore · 8.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-24 #125 Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 8.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-23 #94 Roki Sasaki · 10.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-17 #56 Bailey Ober · 6.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-16 #58 Connor Prielipp · 8.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · 💥
2026-05-15 #100 Joe Ryan · 4.8% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-14 #55 Griffin Canning · 7.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL · · ·
2026-05-06 #206 Andre Pallante · 8.8% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-14 #23 Kevin Gausman · 23.4% 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL · · ·
2026-04-08 #61 Sonny Gray · 13.8% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-07 #73 Garrett Crochet · 13.4% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-06 #77 Brayan Bello · 11.5% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT · · ·
2026-04-05 #196 Kris Bubic · 8.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #219 Luinder Avila · 1.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-04 #75 Seth Lugo · 13.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-04-01 #48 Drew Rasmussen · 14.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-31 #26 Shane McClanahan · 17.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-30 #97 Nick Martinez · 13.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-28 #57 Sean Burke · 14.4% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
2026-03-26 #69 Shane Smith · 12.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM · · ·
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