Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-14T11:00:34-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-14
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 484 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.125. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cruz, Steven
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | 🔥 Extreme | +0.0 | 7 77th | 19.7 | 0.355 | 38.9% | 6.96 | 6.96 | 3.76 | +3.20 | · | |
| 2 |
Taillon, Jameson
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | · | |
| 3 |
Morales, Luis
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | · | |
| 4 |
Curvelo, Luis
TEX
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 5 |
Waldichuk, Ken
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 6 |
Hernández, Jonathan
LAD
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.7 | 0.342 | 36.4% | 8.02 | 8.02 | 5.04 | +2.98 | · | |
| 7 |
Singer, Brady
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 18 100th | 63.7 | 0.283 | 26.1% | 6.38 | 6.38 | 4.40 | +1.98 | · | |
| 8 |
Kremer, Dean
BAL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | · | |
| 9 |
Bummer, Aaron
ATL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 10 |
Santillan, Tony
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 86th | 26.3 | 0.342 | 27.3% | 7.03 | 7.03 | 4.54 | +2.49 | · | |
| 11 |
Cabrera, Edward
CHC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 16 98th | 65.7 | 0.244 | 27.1% | 5.65 | 5.65 | 3.88 | +1.77 | · | |
| 12 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.7 | 0.374 | 28.6% | 8.57 | 8.57 | 5.75 | +2.82 | · | ||
| 13 |
Bellozo, Valente
COL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 14 |
Sandlin, David
CWS
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 13.0 | 0.308 | 33.3% | 6.61 | 6.61 | 4.05 | +2.56 | · | |
| 15 |
Slaten, Justin
BOS
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 13.3 | 0.301 | 33.3% | 6.01 | 6.01 | 3.50 | +2.51 | · | |
| 16 |
Weiss, Ryan
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 82th | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | · | |
| 17 |
Walker, Taijuan
PHI
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 82th | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | · | |
| 18 |
Scherzer, Max
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 86th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | · | |
| 19 |
Parker, Mitchell
WSH
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 10 89th | 36.3 | 0.275 | 23.8% | 5.57 | 5.57 | 3.80 | +1.77 | · | |
| 20 |
Lauer, Eric
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 15 98th | 51.7 | 0.290 | 17.9% | 6.57 | 6.57 | 5.34 | +1.23 | · | |
| 21 |
Weathers, Ryan
NYY
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 16 98th | 78.3 | 0.204 | 22.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | 3.27 | +1.25 | · | |
| 22 |
Ragans, Cole
KC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 10 89th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | · | |
| 23 |
Burrows, Mike
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 17 99th | 78.3 | 0.217 | 19.1% | 5.58 | 5.58 | 4.53 | +1.05 | · | |
| 24 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 15 98th | 65.0 | 0.231 | 19.2% | 6.38 | 6.38 | 5.25 | +1.13 | · | ||
| 25 |
Abreu, Bryan
HOU
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 22.7 | 0.220 | 29.4% | 7.16 | 7.16 | 5.46 | +1.70 | · | |
| 26 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 82th | 36.0 | 0.222 | 25.8% | 5.71 | 5.71 | 4.16 | +1.55 | · | ||
| 27 |
Mikolas, Miles
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 97th | 61.0 | 0.230 | 19.4% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.53 | +1.14 | · | |
| 28 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 15.7 | 0.191 | 33.3% | 4.68 | 4.68 | 3.09 | +1.59 | · | ||
| 29 |
Freeland, Kyle
COL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 95th | 56.7 | 0.229 | 19.4% | 5.64 | 5.64 | 4.50 | +1.14 | · | |
| 30 |
Littell, Zack
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 16 98th | 65.0 | 0.246 | 15.8% | 6.21 | 6.21 | 5.44 | +0.77 | · | |
| 31 |
Topa, Justin
MIN
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 21.0 | 0.238 | 26.3% | 6.67 | 6.67 | 4.99 | +1.68 | · | |
| 32 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 86th | 32.3 | 0.279 | 19.6% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 5.09 | +1.40 | · | ||
| 33 |
Brogdon, Connor
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 16.7 | 0.299 | 21.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 3.92 | +1.74 | · | |
| 34 |
Lodolo, Nick
CIN
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 86th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 22.0% | 6.57 | 6.57 | 5.16 | +1.41 | · | |
| 35 |
Beeks, Jalen
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 77th | 28.3 | 0.247 | 23.3% | 5.76 | 5.76 | 4.20 | +1.56 | · | |
| 36 |
Martin, Chris
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 11.0 | 0.273 | 25.0% | 6.15 | 6.15 | 4.31 | +1.84 | · | |
| 37 |
Springs, Jeffrey
ATH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 16 98th | 76.7 | 0.209 | 17.2% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 4.27 | +0.82 | · | |
| 38 |
Eovaldi, Nathan
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 98th | 84.3 | 0.178 | 20.0% | 4.60 | 4.60 | 3.67 | +0.93 | · | |
| 39 |
Imanaga, Shota
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 99th | 85.7 | 0.198 | 16.7% | 4.67 | 4.67 | 3.94 | +0.73 | · | |
| 40 |
Fedde, Erick
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 97th | 62.0 | 0.226 | 17.5% | 6.10 | 6.10 | 5.18 | +0.92 | · | |
| 41 |
Bibee, Tanner
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 99th | 87.3 | 0.195 | 16.7% | 4.91 | 4.91 | 4.21 | +0.70 | · | |
| 42 |
Strahm, Matt
KC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 77th | 23.3 | 0.300 | 18.4% | 6.37 | 6.37 | 5.01 | +1.36 | · | |
| 43 |
Sproat, Brandon
MIL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 12 94th | 62.3 | 0.193 | 20.7% | 5.45 | 5.45 | 4.39 | +1.06 | · | |
| 44 |
Griffin, Foster
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 98th | 82.7 | 0.181 | 18.5% | 4.65 | 4.65 | 3.82 | +0.83 | · | |
| 45 |
Senga, Kodai
NYM
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 19.7 | 0.254 | 22.7% | 6.25 | 6.25 | 4.69 | +1.56 | · | |
| 46 |
Anderson, Shaun
LAA
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 18.7 | 0.214 | 26.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 4.13 | +1.53 | · | |
| 47 |
Nelson, Ryne
AZ
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 99th | 81.7 | 0.208 | 14.7% | 5.28 | 5.28 | 4.79 | +0.49 | · | |
| 48 |
Gil, Luis
NYY
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.0 | 0.250 | 21.4% | 6.94 | 6.94 | 5.51 | +1.43 | · | |
| 49 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 95th | 71.3 | 0.182 | 19.4% | 5.16 | 5.16 | 4.25 | +0.91 | · | ||
| 50 |
Gallen, Zac
AZ
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 97th | 73.3 | 0.191 | 17.7% | 5.40 | 5.40 | 4.60 | +0.80 | · |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (484 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)