Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-09T17:00:39-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-09
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 474 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.122. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cruz, Steven
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | 🔥 Extreme | +0.0 | 7 79th | 15.3 | 0.458 | 50.0% | 8.38 | 8.38 | 3.86 | +4.52 | · | |
| 2 |
Singer, Brady
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 18 100th | 58.0 | 0.310 | 29.0% | 6.82 | 6.82 | 4.46 | +2.36 | · | |
| 3 |
Taillon, Jameson
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | · | |
| 4 |
Morales, Luis
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | · | |
| 5 |
Waldichuk, Ken
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 6 |
Santillan, Tony
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 87th | 24.7 | 0.364 | 28.1% | 7.44 | 7.44 | 4.73 | +2.71 | · | |
| 7 |
Kremer, Dean
BAL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | · | |
| 8 |
Bummer, Aaron
ATL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 9 |
Martin, Trevor
TB
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.7 | 0.374 | 28.6% | 8.57 | 8.57 | 5.75 | +2.82 | · | |
| 10 |
Bellozo, Valente
COL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 11 |
Walker, Taijuan
PHI
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 83th | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | · | |
| 12 |
Sandlin, David
CWS
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 13.0 | 0.308 | 33.3% | 6.61 | 6.61 | 4.05 | +2.56 | · | |
| 13 |
Weiss, Ryan
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 83th | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | · | |
| 14 |
Cabrera, Edward
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 60.7 | 0.231 | 25.0% | 5.49 | 5.49 | 3.93 | +1.56 | · | |
| 15 |
Lodolo, Nick
CIN
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 87th | 32.0 | 0.281 | 26.5% | 7.12 | 7.12 | 5.12 | +2.00 | · | |
| 16 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 99th | 59.3 | 0.253 | 21.1% | 6.62 | 6.62 | 5.20 | +1.42 | · | ||
| 17 |
Mikolas, Miles
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 56.3 | 0.249 | 21.5% | 5.96 | 5.96 | 4.52 | +1.44 | · | |
| 18 |
Bidois, Brandan
PIT
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 22.2% | 7.42 | 7.42 | 5.25 | +2.17 | · | |
| 19 |
Burrows, Mike
HOU
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 99th | 78.3 | 0.217 | 19.1% | 5.58 | 5.58 | 4.53 | +1.05 | · | |
| 20 |
Ragans, Cole
KC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 10 90th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | · | |
| 21 |
Lauer, Eric
TOR
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 96th | 46.0 | 0.283 | 17.6% | 6.65 | 6.65 | 5.49 | +1.16 | · | |
| 22 |
Slaten, Justin
BOS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.7 | 0.236 | 33.3% | 5.12 | 5.12 | 3.15 | +1.97 | · | |
| 23 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.7 | 0.236 | 33.3% | 5.20 | 5.20 | 3.23 | +1.97 | · | ||
| 24 |
Imanaga, Shota
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 99th | 80.7 | 0.211 | 17.7% | 4.86 | 4.86 | 3.98 | +0.88 | · | |
| 25 |
Weathers, Ryan
NYY
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 74.0 | 0.189 | 21.9% | 4.22 | 4.22 | 3.11 | +1.11 | · | |
| 26 |
Parker, Mitchell
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 87th | 35.3 | 0.255 | 22.0% | 5.39 | 5.39 | 3.89 | +1.50 | · | |
| 27 |
Freeland, Kyle
COL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 96th | 56.7 | 0.229 | 19.4% | 5.64 | 5.64 | 4.50 | +1.14 | · | |
| 28 |
Gallen, Zac
AZ
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 68.0 | 0.206 | 20.0% | 5.62 | 5.62 | 4.55 | +1.07 | · | |
| 29 |
Abreu, Bryan
HOU
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 22.0 | 0.227 | 29.4% | 7.38 | 7.38 | 5.63 | +1.75 | · | |
| 30 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 87th | 32.3 | 0.279 | 19.6% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 5.09 | +1.40 | · | ||
| 31 |
Scherzer, Max
TOR
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 79th | 23.3 | 0.300 | 20.0% | 7.36 | 7.36 | 5.79 | +1.57 | · | |
| 32 |
Brogdon, Connor
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 16.7 | 0.299 | 21.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 3.92 | +1.74 | · | |
| 33 |
Littell, Zack
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 99th | 63.3 | 0.237 | 15.3% | 6.04 | 6.04 | 5.38 | +0.66 | · | |
| 34 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 96th | 66.3 | 0.196 | 20.6% | 5.43 | 5.43 | 4.36 | +1.07 | · | ||
| 35 |
Eovaldi, Nathan
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 78.7 | 0.178 | 20.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.51 | +0.99 | · | |
| 36 |
Topa, Justin
MIN
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 21.0 | 0.238 | 26.3% | 6.67 | 6.67 | 4.99 | +1.68 | · | |
| 37 |
Martin, Chris
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 11.0 | 0.273 | 25.0% | 6.15 | 6.15 | 4.31 | +1.84 | · | |
| 38 |
Fedde, Erick
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 96th | 57.3 | 0.227 | 17.3% | 6.20 | 6.20 | 5.30 | +0.90 | · | |
| 39 |
Griffin, Foster
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 76.7 | 0.183 | 18.2% | 4.73 | 4.73 | 3.92 | +0.81 | · | |
| 40 |
Senga, Kodai
NYM
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 19.7 | 0.254 | 22.7% | 6.25 | 6.25 | 4.69 | +1.56 | · | |
| 41 |
Sproat, Brandon
MIL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 93th | 56.3 | 0.195 | 20.4% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 4.47 | +1.04 | · | |
| 42 |
Leasure, Jordan
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 20.7 | 0.290 | 18.2% | 6.39 | 6.39 | 5.11 | +1.28 | · | |
| 43 |
Gil, Luis
NYY
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.0 | 0.250 | 21.4% | 6.94 | 6.94 | 5.51 | +1.43 | · | |
| 44 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 24.0 | 0.208 | 26.3% | 5.19 | 5.19 | 3.72 | +1.47 | · | ||
| 45 |
Anderson, Shaun
LAA
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 18.7 | 0.214 | 26.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 4.13 | +1.53 | · | |
| 46 |
Springs, Jeffrey
ATH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 71.7 | 0.195 | 16.1% | 4.87 | 4.87 | 4.22 | +0.65 | · | |
| 47 |
Bibee, Tanner
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 99th | 80.7 | 0.186 | 15.6% | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.30 | +0.56 | · | |
| 48 |
deGrom, Jacob
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 13 96th | 69.7 | 0.187 | 17.6% | 3.81 | 3.81 | 3.04 | +0.77 | · | |
| 49 |
Mahle, Tyler
SF
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 93th | 55.7 | 0.197 | 19.0% | 4.96 | 4.96 | 4.02 | +0.94 | · | |
| 50 |
Ray, Robbie
SF
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 98th | 71.3 | 0.196 | 15.6% | 5.37 | 5.37 | 4.78 | +0.59 | · |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (474 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)