← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-12
1
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
22
HRs in Slate
69%
Coverage
252
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
11 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
11 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Brady Singer: {'batter': 'James Wood', 'rank': 1, 'score': 64.0}, {'batter': 'Curtis Mead', 'rank': 4, 'score': 60.0}, {'batter': 'CJ Abrams', 'rank': 9, 'score': 56.0}
Miles Mikolas: {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 2, 'score': 64.0}, {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 3, 'score': 62.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 7, 'score': 58.0}, {'batter': 'Spencer Steer', 'rank': 12, 'score': 54.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ✅ | James Wood | Brady Singer | 29.6% | 64 | 5.0 | 1.27 | · | nan% | 108.2 mph · 396ft · 35.0° |
| 2 | — | Sal Stewart | Miles Mikolas | 27.4% | 64 | 6.9 | 1.27 | · | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Miles Mikolas | 48.2% | 62 | 6.9 | 1.27 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Curtis Mead | Brady Singer | 26.2% | 60 | 5.0 | 1.27 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Matt Olson | Colin Rea | 37.6% | 59 | 3.9 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Bryan Woo | 24.5% | 59 | 3.8 | 1.14 | · | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Miles Mikolas | 27.1% | 58 | 6.9 | 1.27 | ❄ | nan% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Shea Langeliers | Andre Pallante | 38.2% | 58 | 4.7 | 1.11 | 🌤️ | nan% | 108.1 mph · 448ft · 29.0° |
| 9 | — | CJ Abrams | Brady Singer | 33.6% | 56 | 5.0 | 1.27 | · | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Jordan Walker | Jeffrey Springs | 43.1% | 55 | 4.2 | 1.11 | · | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Andy Pages | Adrian Houser | 38.3% | 55 | 5.1 | 1.20 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 12 | — | Spencer Steer | Miles Mikolas | 32.9% | 54 | 6.9 | 1.27 | · | nan% | |
| 13 | — | Ian Happ | Grant Holmes | 34.9% | 53 | 4.9 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 14 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Stephen Kolek | 26.9% | 53 | 3.9 | 0.93 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Byron Buxton | Eury Pérez | 40.5% | 53 | 5.0 | 1.04 | 🌤️ | nan% |
All 22 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | 29.6% | 108.2 | 396ft | 35.0° |
| 8 | Shea Langeliers | 38.2% | 108.1 | 448ft | 29.0° |
| 32 | Shohei Ohtani | 17.7% | 105.9 | 398ft | 23.0° |
| 34 | Dominic Canzone | 15.8% | 105.5 | 381ft | 25.0° |
| 38 | Miguel Andujar | 13.6% | 100.8 | 405ft | 28.0° |
| 40 | JJ Wetherholt | 12.4% | 98.3 | 380ft | 31.0° |
| 45 | Ildemaro Vargas | 19.3% | 103.9 | 422ft | 23.0° |
| 49 | Brady House | 22.6% | 104.6 | 393ft | 27.0° |
| 53 | Ryan Jeffers | 22.8% | 111.1 | 407ft | 26.0° |
| 60 | Randy Arozarena | 9.1% | 101.7 | 369ft | 34.0° |
| 66 | Luis García Jr. | 10.1% | 99.8 | 375ft | 24.0° |
| 93 | Daylen Lile | 10.8% | 109.2 | 429ft | 26.0° |
| 103 | Angel Martínez | 12.5% | 100.0 | 353ft | 42.0° |
| 107 | Dillon Dingler | 10.5% | 101.8 | 369ft | 26.0° |
| 119 | Austin Riley | 13.5% | 107.0 | 409ft | 35.0° |
| 120 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 19.6% | 102.7 | 373ft | 24.0° |
| 129 | Salvador Perez | 13.1% | 106.1 | 381ft | 21.0° |
| 178 | Harrison Bader | 8.4% | 99.4 | 360ft | 23.0° |
| 184 | Joc Pederson | 6.2% | 109.1 | 380ft | 26.0° |
| 189 | Alex Bregman | 9.8% | 100.4 | 374ft | 35.0° |
| 221 | Mike Yastrzemski | 7.4% | 102.8 | 380ft | 35.0° |
| 242 | Chase Meidroth | 7.8% | 99.8 | 359ft | 25.0° |