⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
MIN
@ 1:37p
TOR
Rogers Centre · 7 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.19×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.186
Wind
0 mph
dome
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Daulton Varsho Daulton Varsho 74 🟡 B · 🔥 HOT 7 0.310 81.8 5.2% 0.0% · 33.3% 50.0% 4.2% 33
2 Jesús Sánchez Jesús Sánchez 56 🟠 C · · 29 0.157 91.2 9.1% 0.0% 417 50.0% 50.0% 1.6% 29
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 34 0.175 91.2 11.1% 0.0% 437 7.1% 8.3% 1.6% 38
4 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Valenzuela 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 47 0.221 81.3 7.4% 0.0% 376 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 26
5 Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes 32 ⚪ D · · 122 0.152 82.8 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 16
6 Andrés Giménez Andrés Giménez 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 129 0.103 88.6 6.9% 0.0% 384 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 36
7 Ernie Clement Ernie Clement 29 ⚪ D · · 140 0.121 85.7 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 44
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

4 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.