← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-04-29
1
Top-5 Hits
1
Top-15 Hits
20
HRs in Slate
77%
Coverage
261
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
10 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
13 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
5 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Chris Bassitt: {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 1, 'score': 92.0}, {'batter': 'Christian Walker', 'rank': 12, 'score': 75.0}
Tomoyuki Sugano: {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 2, 'score': 90.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 3, 'score': 88.0}, {'batter': 'Spencer Steer', 'rank': 5, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 7, 'score': 79.0}
Brandon Williamson: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 6, 'score': 81.0}, {'batter': 'Mickey Moniak', 'rank': 13, 'score': 75.0}
Tarik Skubal: {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 8, 'score': 79.0}, {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 10, 'score': 77.0}
Nathan Eovaldi: {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 9, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 11, 'score': 76.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Chris Bassitt | 42.4% | 92 | 6.3 | 1.35 | · | 20.5% | |
| 2 | — | Sal Stewart | Tomoyuki Sugano | 46.5% | 90 | 4.8 | 1.28 | · | 23.7% | |
| 3 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Tomoyuki Sugano | 39.6% | 88 | 4.8 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | 15.1% | |
| 4 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Sandy Alcantara | 16.9% | 83 | 4.1 | 1.29 | · | 22.1% | |
| 5 | — | Spencer Steer | Tomoyuki Sugano | 27.7% | 83 | 4.8 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | 17.9% | |
| 6 | ✅ | Hunter Goodman | Brandon Williamson | 42.0% | 81 | 6.3 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | 13.2% | 108.9 mph · 415ft · 27.0° |
| 7 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Tomoyuki Sugano | 40.4% | 79 | 4.8 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | 10.7% | |
| 8 | — | Michael Harris II | Tarik Skubal | 21.1% | 79 | 2.0 | 1.10 | 🌤️ | 19.7% | |
| 9 | — | Aaron Judge | Nathan Eovaldi | 39.0% | 77 | 5.7 | 0.97 | 🌤️ | 24.6% | |
| 10 | ✅ | Matt Olson | Tarik Skubal | 22.2% | 77 | 2.0 | 1.10 | · | 17.7% | 104.7 mph · 397ft · 23.0° |
| 11 | — | Ben Rice | Nathan Eovaldi | 43.4% | 76 | 5.7 | 0.97 | · | 21.6% | |
| 12 | — | Christian Walker | Chris Bassitt | 47.6% | 75 | 6.3 | 1.35 | · | 11.7% | |
| 13 | — | Mickey Moniak | Brandon Williamson | 51.7% | 75 | 6.3 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | 12.5% | |
| 14 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Logan Webb | 39.6% | 75 | 3.3 | 1.06 | 🌧️ | 21.8% | |
| 15 | — | Carlos Cortes | Michael Wacha | 30.2% | 74 | 3.6 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 15.4% |
All 20 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hunter Goodman | 42.0% | 108.9 | 415ft | 27.0° |
| 18 | Matt Olson | 22.2% | 104.7 | 397ft | 23.0° |
| 24 | Liam Hicks | 35.8% | 103.6 | 398ft | 34.0° |
| 42 | Willson Contreras | 29.3% | 103.9 | 406ft | 28.0° |
| 79 | Ozzie Albies | 13.0% | 102.1 | 400ft | 24.0° |
| 85 | Ernie Clement | 5.9% | 99.3 | 360ft | 23.0° |
| 97 | Mike Trout | 34.8% | 99.4 | 364ft | 23.0° |
| 106 | Corbin Carroll | 17.6% | 106.4 | 430ft | 29.0° |
| 118 | Adrian Del Castillo | 8.5% | 100.1 | 377ft | 31.0° |
| 133 | Ketel Marte | 10.8% | 109.9 | 409ft | 21.0° |
| 134 | Lawrence Butler | 9.4% | 105.6 | 404ft | 33.0° |
| 140 | Nolan Arenado | 13.8% | 104.3 | 411ft | 32.0° |
| 145 | Miguel Andujar | 8.1% | 99.2 | 387ft | 28.0° |
| 153 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 6.1% | 105.4 | 357ft | 24.0° |
| 176 | Matt Shaw | 10.9% | 101.2 | 351ft | 41.0° |
| 200 | Spencer Horwitz | 6.8% | 100.9 | 397ft | 36.0° |
| 212 | Curtis Mead | 19.7% | 99.7 | 392ft | 28.0° |
| 225 | Alec Burleson | 8.8% | 108.4 | 411ft | 25.0° |
| 232 | Brady House | 5.0% | 106.0 | 385ft | 25.0° |
| 254 | J.P. Crawford | 5.4% | 98.5 | 374ft | 30.0° |