⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
SD
@ 9:38p
LAA
Angel Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.16×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.928
Temp
53.3°F
Wind
3.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
Germán Márquez
Germán Márquez RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mike Trout Mike Trout 96 🥇 S · · 1 0.333 92.8 28.3% 29.2% 421 23.5% 18.2% 45.4% 37
2 Jorge Soler Jorge Soler 90 🔥 A+ · 🌤️ WARM 6 0.277 88.4 14.6% 38.5% 390 25.0% 30.0% 46.3% 25
3 Zach Neto Zach Neto 78 🟡 B · · 20 0.224 89.7 12.5% 20.0% 397 23.5% 27.3% 36.9% 35
4 Oswald Peraza Oswald Peraza 76 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 26 0.268 88.4 8.8% 57.1% 379 66.7% 66.7% 47.3% 30
5 Yoán Moncada Yoán Moncada 72 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 33 0.190 90.3 7.7% 21.4% 365 50.0% 50.0% 30.8% 18
6 Josh Lowe Josh Lowe 64 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 49 0.185 84.4 11.1% 18.8% 365 16.7% 22.2% 28.1% 25
7 Jo Adell Jo Adell 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 68 0.128 90.9 5.0% 13.0% 428 11.8% 18.2% 15.0% 46
8 Logan O'Hoppe Logan O'Hoppe 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 136 0.070 87.7 7.3% 7.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 30
9 Nolan Schanuel Nolan Schanuel 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 179 0.106 87.4 1.9% 15.4% 361 11.8% 0.0% 11.7% 40
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ramón Laureano Ramón Laureano 71 🟡 B · · 35 0.261 89.3 15.2% 20.0% 396 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 36
2 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 71 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 36 0.195 88.5 13.0% 18.8% 399 18.8% 16.7% 15.3% 42
3 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 67 🔵 C+ · · 44 0.246 88.7 11.1% 22.2% 425 6.2% 8.3% 25.2% 31
4 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 56 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 72 0.151 89.5 7.0% 20.0% 391 12.5% 16.7% 18.1% 40
5 Manny Machado Manny Machado 53 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 81 0.129 86.4 7.3% 20.0% 384 12.5% 16.7% 12.9% 32
6 Fernando Tatis Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 96 0.057 95.2 13.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 36
7 Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 130 0.062 89.3 4.7% 10.0% 399 6.2% 8.3% 9.2% 32
8 Nick Castellanos Nick Castellanos 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 145 0.070 89.4 6.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 22
9 Miguel Andujar Miguel Andujar 36 ⚪ D · · 172 0.122 91.2 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 22
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.85

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.